Best DIRECTOR
My current frontrunners:
- Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
- Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
- Alexander Payne (Sideways)
- Mike Nichols (Closer)
- Marc Forster (Finding Neverland)
- Taylor Hackford (Ray)
- Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)
The risk of sneaking in a wild guess is that you are very likely to get 3/5 in what would normally be a 4/5 category: Hackford and Forster were the likely candidates, and Ray's support was stronger in the main categories. Mike Leigh is the big surprise of this year nominated for both director and screenplay.
In the Best Director category we again have a few people fighting for 2 slots: Marc Forster, Taylor Hackford, Alejandro Amenabar, Bill Condon, Zhang Yimou are all names mentioned with various degrees of likelyhood. And of course there's my wild choice Mike Nichols.
Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
Scorsese is bound to get his 5th nomination. The only question remains whether he will receive his first win.
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
Clint Eastwood's last year nomination is not likely to hurt his chances in any way this year. There may be more interesting directing feats this year, but his classic style is certain to be acknowledged with a nomination. Winning the Golden Globe gives him a strong push for a win as well.
Alexander Payne (Sideways)
Sideways seems to be the most loved movie at this point and Alexander Payne won the LA critics award and gathered nominations from DGA, BFCA and the Golden Globes. It looks like he is a favorite for an Oscar nomination as well, but I wouldn't consider him set in stone just yet.
Mike Nichols (Closer)
Mike Nichols is my wildcard and also my favorite. With a tour de force resembling his first directorial feature over 30 years ago (Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf) and following an acclaimed TV miniseries Angels in America, he could and should get sufficient recognition for a nomination. However only the Golden Globes seem to share my point of view so... it will be tough
Marc Forster (Finding Neverland)
All the signs point towards him getting nominated: Golden Globes, DGA and BFCA nominations. As long as the movie is likely to get a nomination, so is Forster for bringing to screen the magical world of J.M. Barrie, Neverland being only one small part of it.
Runners Up
Taylor Hackford (Ray)
With the great buzz behind Jamie Foxx's performance extending to the movie, it is not inconceivable for it to reach the director competition as well. Nominations from BFCA and DGA make it a strong contender.
Alejandro Amenabar (The Sea Inside)
There is always a chance that a foreign movie will get recognition in some of the main categories. In my opinion, The Sea Inside has the best shot this year with good recognition going to Amenabar and Javier Bardem.
Zhang Yimou (House of Flying Daggers)
In the same spirit of foreign movies receiving major nominations, a lot of people believe Zhang Yimou has a great shot this year as there is cumulative buzz from both his most recent movie House of Flying Daggers but also for Hero which was shown in US theatres in 2004.
Bill Condon (Kinsey)
Bill Condon seemed a favorite earlier on, but recently support for Kinsey has faded.
Michael Mann (Collateral)
An NBR nomination, is unlikely to show enough support for Michael Mann.
Wes Anderson (The Life Aquatic)
Wes Anderson has lots of fans, but his recent movie did not receive any precursor support.