Oscars

Best PICTURE

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

• The Aviator (Miramax)
• Sideways (Fox Searchlight)
• Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros)
• Ray (Universal)
• Finding Neverland (Miramax)

This was indeed the most predictable race, with no surprise whatsoever. The Aviator, recent winner of the PGA is also the most nominated movie with 11 nods.

The Best Picture race is apparently the most boring race, but don't let the appearances fool you. Ray and even Finding Neverland are not guaranteed noms. Finding Neverland runs the risk of being the second Miramax movie, but it will probably overcome that on the Johnny Depp/Chocolat factor. Ray is a great movie but it might lose out the BP nomination to any of Kinsey, Closer, Hotel Rwanda or even Eternal Sunshine.... I will stick with the "boring" 5 though.

1. The Aviator (Miramax)

   Martin Scorsese's story about a Hollywood legend gathered a lot of precursor nominations and is a sure shot to make the final ballot for the Oscars too.

2. Sideways (Fox Searchlight)

   Sideways seems to be the Lost in Translation of 2004. Nominated by virtually every precursor and winning most of them (BFCA, Boston, LA, Chicago, etc.) Sideways is the apparent surprising frontrunner. A nomination is certain for now.

3. Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros)

   Clint Eastwood has mastered the art of powerful dramas and I don't think anyone will shy away from his newest movie just because they applauded Mystic River last year. In fact it already won a few smaller critic awards and was nominated by all major ones including Golden Globes, PGA, SAG and BFCA.

4. Ray (Universal)

   While Jamie Foxx is considered by some to have already won the golden statuette, Ray may yet not make it to the ballot. Nominated by the Golden Globes, SAG and BFCA.

5. Finding Neverland (Miramax)

   Another biopic and another Miramax movie. Plus it has the universally loved Johnny Depp. However some may find that one Miramax movie is sufficient, and that slot will likely go to The Aviator. This may open the door for Closer or Kinsey.

   Runners Up

6. Closer (Sony)

   The Golden Globes started with 2 acting awards for Closer which makes me think that it might still have a chance to break into the top 5.

7. Kinsey (Fox Searchlight)

   Kinsey seems to be running out of steam, but the Academy voters might appreciate the sex emancipation story as a contrast to our conservative society.

8. Hotel Rwanda (MGM/UA)

   The movie gets a lot of attention lately including a surprise ensemble cast nomination by SAG. Also Golden Globe and BFCA nominations.

9. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus)

   Only a miracle can push this in now...