Best ACTOR
The current predictions:
- Jamie Foxx (Ray)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)
- Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
- Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside)
- Paul Giamatti (Sideways)
- Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
- Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
The same story as in my best director predictions: predicting Javier Bardem was wishful thinking, while Paul Giamatti's omission is perhaps the most surprising ommission of this nomination morning. Eastwood and Cheadle are not surprising inclusions, but more people would've guessed a list without Johnny Depp rather than without Giamatti.
After winning the Golden Globes Foxx and DiCaprio have no worries. Giamatti looks like he won't be ignored again, and Depp is a Hollywood favorite which gives him a good chance. But then there are Liam Neeson, Don Cheadle and Javier Bardem...
Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Jamie Foxx was spot on in impersonating the icon that was Ray Charles. There is no doubt whatsoever about his nomination and with his recent Golden Globe win, there is almost no doubt about his chances of winning.
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)
Pretty boy DiCaprio has shown in Aviator that he really grew as an actor and this time even the Golden Globes agreed. His nomination is a lock.
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
After his exuberant performance last year, which brought him the first nomination, the role in Finding Neverland is even more suitable for Oscar voters. Golden Globe, BFA and SAG agree and nominated him as well.
Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside)
Similarly to the best director competition, my wildcard choice comes from The Sea Inside. Javier Bardem's transformation as a paraplegic fighting for his right to die is normally a nomination honeypot, provided enough people get to see the movie.
Paul Giamatti (Sideways)
Although I list him as my 5th choice, and I am not such a huge fan of Sideways, I would have to say that Paul Giamatti would deserve a nomination. Thankfully for him, it seems that a lot of associations agree, winning the awards from NYFCC, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco critics, and getting nominated by the SAG, BFCA and the Golden Globes.
Runners Up
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
He is perhaps the most likely to replace Bardem in the top 5. His movie has not yet been widely seen, but it has been unanimously praised by those that did see it. Nominations by the BFCA, SAG and Golden Globes and a very positive reaction in the Globes audience as the movie was presented.
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
I am somewhat surprised that I place him that low on the list. His acting performance was better in my opinion than his directing performance in this movie. Although he has no precursor award nominations, he is a force to be reckoned with and could be the one replacing Bardem in the top 5.
Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
Neeson is in the same shaky boat as his movie, but perhaps in a somewhat better position. He might be considered overdue and therefore at least given a shot.
Jeff Bridges (A Door in the Floor)
Bridges had a great performance in one of my top movies of the year, and with 4 nominations without a win, he has an off chance at the "overdue" category. However, everybody seems to have forgotten this movie which premiered early in the year.
Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
Carrey is a Golden Globe favorite but so far no Oscar recognition. This year is a tough one to get in, especially since Eternal Sunshine... although highly appreciated, is perhaps a bit too quirky for the majority of the voters.
Sean Penn (The Assassination of Richard Nixon)
No significant Oscar buzz for a performance that has been compared with De Niro's Taxi Driver. The movie's limited distribution is probably the main reason for this omission, but it seems too late right now for anything to change.
Al Pacino (The Merchant of Venice)
Controversial theme, great acting, but not an Academy favorite... Pacino needs a much more prominent role to make it on the shortlist.
Bill Murray (The Life Aquatic)
Last year was Murray's year. This year he has a strong performance in a completely ignored movie.
Gael Garcia Bernal (The Motorcycle Diaries)
Good acting in both Motorcycle Diaries and in Bad Education, but not enough to jump over the Academy hurdles.