Best Supporting ACTOR
The current prediction:
- Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
- Thomas H. Church (Sideways)
- Clive Owen (Closer)
- Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey)
- Jamie Foxx (Collateral)
- Alan Alda (The Aviator)
Although I did mention Alda's name as a possible spoiler, I didn't quite consider him seriously. Of course, in the end of the day he is likely to be an "also ran", but so far he took Sarsgaard's place or, more sadly, Carradine's. On the other hand Jamie Foxx manages to receive nominations in both acting categories. Impressive.
Everyone seems to have accepted Jamie Foxx's leading role in Collateral as supporting performance, perhaps a sign that this category is fairly weak this year. Morgan Freeman and Hayden Church have received the strongest critical support. Owen and Sarsgaard however may find their spots endangered by 12 year old Freddie Highmore, veterans David Carradine and James Garner, or exuberant Rodrigo De la Serna.
Morgan Freeman (MillionDollar Baby)
Freeman is my favorite at this point. With 3 previous nominations and no win, with Golden Globe, SAG and BFCA nods this year, and a clearly strong performance, he cannot possibly miss the nomination.
Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)
Sideways has been the critic favorite so far, and H. Church's performance is indeed noteworthy. BFCA, NBR, Chicago, LA winner, to name just a few, he is another sure-shot nomination.
Clive Owen (Closer)
After winning the Golden Globe on top of a few critic awards (NYFCC, Las Vegas) Owen seems able to reach a nomination even without the SAG support.
Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey)
After being ignored for his Shatter Glass role last year, Sarsgaard brings another solid role which should bring him the nomination this year. However only a BFCA nomination among the precursor awards indicates that his position is vulnerable.
Jamie Foxx (Collateral)
It is hard to label Foxx's performance as "supporting", yet everyone including the Golden Globes, SAG and BFCA seem to agree. His strong performance might bring him the 2nd nomination in the same year.
Runners Up
David Carradine (Kill Bill: vol. 2)
The Golden Globes recognized his great performance with a nomination and it would be a great opportunity to recognize for the first time a veteran. However, Kill Bill is not exactly Academy material.
Freddie Highmore (Finding Neverland)
With an SAG nomination, Highmore has a strong chance of following in the footsteps of Keisha Castle-Hughes. I hope it would not be the case, but...
Rodrigo de la Serna (Motorcycle Diaries)
Che Guevarra's cousin, playing his road-trip buddy and lifelong friend offered one of the best performances this year. However, it doesn't look like the movie got noticed enough around Hollywood.
Alan Alda (The Aviator)
With a good, although small performance, Alda might get in on the Aviator coat-tails if the movie will be the nomination leader.
James Garner (The Notebook)
Given the SAG nomination he is not out of the question. However, his movie is not getting much attention so the chance remains slim.