Best Supporting ACTRESS
Current predictions:
- Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
- Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
- Laura Linney (Kinsey)
- Cloris Leachman (Spanglish)
- Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland)
- Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
- Natalie Portman (Closer)
Third time is not a charm, and my third attempt at outsmarting everyone with guessing a surprise nomination, backfired as well. No nomination for Leachman and out of the likely trio: Okonedo, Portman, Winslet, my choice was also the wrong one. Actually the one change that I was planning to make last night, was to include Portman instead of Winslet, but... I fell asleep instead :). Portman did receive her nomination despite the Actor's Guild snub, exposing the difference between the mass of actors represented in SAG and the "selected" ones that are part of the Academy.
At this point I may be crazy leaving out recent Golden Globe winner Natalie Portman. I am still torn wether Owen/Portman will make it in despite Closer being snubbed by SAG and other guilds, which is still very likely. The first three nominees seem sure bets now. Leachman is my personal favorite and wild-guess (when will I learn not to let myself influenced by personal feelings...) and she's fighting alongside Winslet, Portman and Okonedo for the other 2 spots.
Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
She is a clear frontrunner, her performance being the most acclaimed in a very appreciated movie. Winner of a few critic awards and nominated by Golden Globes, BFCA, SAG
Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
Her performance is the most uniformly appreciated in Sideways and she won the BFCA as well as LA and NY critics awards. Nominated by the Golden Globes and SAG.
Laura Linney (Kinsey)
NBR saw her as the best, while the Globes, BFCA and SAG acknowledged her performance in Kinsey. It's time for her 2nd Oscar nod.
Cloris Leachman (Spanglish)
My wildcard is also my favorite performance of the year in this category. Leachman shined in Spanglish and the SAG noticed it too! Hopefully that is enough to bring her a well deserved nomination.
Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland)
This is a tough call, since by including Leachman in my list I leave Winslet and Portman to battle for the last nomination. Winslet this time is in a very typical role for herself, in contrast to her colorful lead role in Eternal Sunshine.... It is possible that voters might think twice before nominating her in both categories. This could benefit Portman here and/or Thurman in the leading category.
Runners Up
Natalie Portman (Closer)
With a surprising Golden Globe win and a BFCA nomination she would seem like a certain nomination. I am still going out on a limb guessing that the Academy doesn't really love Closer enough. I know, I know, I predicted Mike Nichols to get a nod, which makes me somewhat inconsistent but... oh well. There's still a week left to change my mind :)
Meryl Streep (The Manchurian Candidate)
If she gets her 14th nomination I will quite likely throw up. However, she did get a Golden Globe nod and you can never ignore the power of habit.
Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
The SAG nominatino gives her an outside chance, especially if the movie and Don Cheadle receive strong support.
Maia Morgenstern (Passion of the Christ)
Given that the SAG forgot her, it's likely that everyone will. She had strong early buzz, but that was... 9 months ago.
Barbra Streisand (Meet the Fockers)
Just because she came back...
Sharon Warren (Ray)
Only if Ray and Jamie Foxx pull her through, but looks more unlikely than Okonedo right now.