The Oscars lingo
Forecasting the Oscars can be a full time job. It's not enough to have watched all the movies that are eligible for the awards. Actually, that's not even required for a true Oscar pundit, as it may lead to the personal preferences getting in the way of an objective prediction. And yes, predicting the Oscar nominees and then the winners themselves is becoming, at least for some, more and more an exact science. There are precursor awards which may have a bearing; there is the box-office; there is the charisma with respect to the Hollywood world of a certain actor or director; there are studio politics... Some Oscarologists put these factors into mathematical formulas. Others have defined laws and rules and try to figure each year when and where to apply them.
I am more in the latter category, or otherwise put, as much as I am a fan of statistics, I did not build a formula. That is not to say that I do not look at numbers and past history in my humble predictions, and of course, I am aware of some unwritten rules and, as much as I can, of all the relevant politics. As time will pass I will probably compile a section of links towards other Oscar specialists, for the readers enjoyment.
For now, before you read further, I will give you a lexicon of terms and abbreviations commonly used in the prediction game and encourage you to also check the info I compiled about the Oscars voting procedure.
precursors = awards/nominations announced before the Oscars.
GG = Golden Globes
HFPA = Hollywood Foreign Press Association (they award the GG)
PGA = Producers Guild Of America
DGA = Directors Guild Of America
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
WGA = Writers Guild Of America
ACE = American Cinema Editors
ASC = American Society Of Cinematographers
CAS = Cinema Audio Society
MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors
ADG = Art Directors Guild
CDG = Costume Designers Guild
MakeUp = Hollywood Makeup and Hair Stylist Guild
VES = Visual Effects Society
BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association
BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts
NBR = National Board of Review
LAFCA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NYFCO = New York Film Critics Online
NYFCC = New York Film Critics Circle
LVFC = Las Vegas Film Critics
Seattle, Boston, Chicago = the corresponding Film Critics