Oscars

Almost final thoughts

It is time for the final thoughts on the Oscar predictions. Tuesday Jan 25th, in the morning, the official nominations will be announced and this part of the game will be over. This year I decided not to attempt and predict the nominees in the foreign film, shorts, documentary or technical categories. While they are not necessarily harder to predict, I will resume to commenting on the choice of nominees rather than try to spoil them. So here are some hopefully final thoughts, although I reserve the right to make some last minute changes Monday night.

The meta-questions that need to be asked this year are: did the voters love Eternal Sunshine...?; did they hate Closer really? (missing some guild nominations); did they like Kill Bill?; did they all see Hotel Rwanda (and fell for it)?; will we have like last year recognition of foreign movies in the main categories?...

It is hard however to predict a uniform answer to these questions given that the nominations are submitted separately by the various Academy voting branches. However, despite that, trends do form among the voters and if Eternal Sunshine will be well viewed it is likely to get not only a screenplay nomination but could also receive director, best actress and even best actor nods.

Similarly, if it is to be a year for Closer, despite a complete snub by the SAG, Clive Owen, Natalie Portman and Mike Nichols may find themselves nominated together perhaps with even a best picture recognition.

Things become even more complicated when we look at potential foreign nominations: Amenabar, Bardem and The Sea Inside are the lead favorites. But Zhang Yimou and House of Flying Daggers could get recognized, as well as Gael Garcia Bernal and Motorcycle Diaries, or Pedro Almodovar and Bad Education, or even Jean-Pierre Jeunet and A Very Long Engagement. Except for The Sea Inside all these nominations, especially if they come in the main 8 categories, will be considered surprises, although they are not unpredictable. This is where the Academy did surprise us last year and might attempt to do it again.

The wait is almost over... See you Tuesday.