Oscars

Best Actress

Annette Bening (Being Julia)	Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)	Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)	Hillary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)	Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine...)

Should Win: Imelda Staunton/ Kate Winslet Could Win: Imelda Staunton/Annete Bening Will Win: Hillary Swank
Watching the clips of the nominees and then Swank winning as predicted I could only be sad that the typical oscar-bait roles are still the ones that win easily in this category. And God, Swank gave one of the worst speeches possible...

Catalina Sandino Moreno and Kate Winslet come from different directions - one receiving her first nomination which she probably never dreamt of, the other receiving her 4th for an impressive performance against the traditional Oscar trend, but they are both headed in the same direction - the "also ran" honorary group.

The duel for the golden statuette seems to be this year between Bening, Staunton and Swank. Bening and Swank face off for the second time, after their previous duel in 1999 when Swank won on her first nomination. This situation may give the edge to Bening who is at her 3rd nomination. However, the winner of most awards this year is Staunton whose subdued yet powerful performance is in high contrast with those of Bening and Swank. Swank and Bening won the Golden Globes for their respective categories, but Staunton's movie, Vera Drake had sufficient support among the Academy voters to bring it also surprise nominations for directing and screenplay.

However, the Academy trend for this category seems to favor lately the women that turn themselves into ugly characters, victimized characters or both. This makes Swank's character an extremely powerful candidate to follow in the footsteps of... herself in 99, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman or Charlize Theron in the past 3 years. Bening's diva performance or Winslet's quirky one are likely to be forgotten then, and the only question remains whether Staunton's Vera Drake is enough of a victim (or perhaps a more powerfully acted role, if any of the voters will actually consider acting as a criterion for this award) to push her in front.

Current prediction: Hillary Swank.