Oscars

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Alda (The Aviator)	Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)	Jamie Foxx (Collateral)	Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)	Clive Owen (Closer)

Should Win: Clive Owen Could Win: Thomas Haden Church Will Win: Morgan Freeman

With 3 first time nominees (Alda, Owen and Haden Church) and no previous winner, this category is somewhat open.

Jamie Foxx will walk away with an Oscar this year, but it will not be in this category. His worthy nomination in a movie that is far from the typical Oscar fare does nothing but actually further show the strength of his frontrunner position in the leading actor category.

Alan Alda had a relatively small role in The Aviator but managed to get nominated on the strength of the Miramax campaign. He is a respected actor who may not get further chances for an Oscar in the following years, but... at least he received his first nomination.

Morgan Freeman on the other hand is at his 4th nomination without a win and his stature is one to be recogned with. The seemingly strong support for Million Dollar Baby may be best placed in this category rather than any of the others which would place Freeman in a very good position for the final stretch of this race.

Thomas Haden Church seemed to be the favorite of this category following the strong critical support for Sideways. However, this support has waivered at the Oscars as co-star Giamatti failed to make the cut. On the other hand, Clive Owen is the exponent of the exact opposite situation. Snubbed together with co-star Portman by the SAG, they both win Golden Globes and receive the Oscar nominations. At this point I am inclined to believe that he would have more support than Church.

Very preliminary prediction: Morgan Freeman