Oscars

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)	Laura Linney (Kinsey)	Virginia Madsen (Sideways)	Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)	Natalie Portman (Closer)

Should win: Natalie Portman Could win: Cate Blanchett Will win: Natalie Portman
My hopeful surprise did not happen. Aviator looks strong early in the show.

Another acting category with no previous winner and 3 first time nominees (Madsen, Okonedo, Portman). This is even closer than the equivalent men's category since the other 2 nominees are only here for the 2nd time.

Linney had a good performance in Kinsey a movie which seems otherwise forgotten at the Oscars. Her role is clearly in the shadow of Liam Neeson and her nomination, while deserved, seems to be also due to lack of strong competition in this category. Okonedo may be a dark horse for some to gather enough sympathy around Hotel Rwanda's story, but it is a very long shot.

This leaves us with Madsen, Blanchett and Portman. Portman, after being snubbed by the SAG, won the Golden Globe and moved again into contention. I am sure a lot of voters like her and they would appreciate her performances this year (Closer and Garden State) but I do not think she will be rewarded so quickly (she is only 23) with an actual win.

Madsen was, like her movie Sideways one of the main critic favorites in the precursor season. She had a relatively small role in a relatively small movie. Is Sideways this year's Lost in Translation? Can it stand up to the Miramax powerhouse The Aviator? I personally doubt it and, particularly in this category, Blanchett seems to have a lot going for her as even though not everyone supports The Aviator, her performance impersonating Katherine Hepburn was quasi-unanimously appreciated.