Technical Categories
Marked below are my predictions as to who will win and who could win (my 2nd guess). For my comments and opinions on who should win had I had a ballot, scroll all the way down.
Cinematography
- The Aviator
- House of Flying Daggers
- Passion of the Christ
- Very Long Engagement
- Phantom of the Opera
Editing
- The Aviator
- Collateral
- Million Dollar Baby
- Ray
- Finding Neverland
Original Score
- Finding Neverland (Jan Kaczmarek)
- Passion of the Christ (John Debney)
- Harry Potter 3 (John Williams)
- Lemony Snicket (Thomas Newman)
- The Village (James Howard)
The last minute change was warranted. Indeed voting here goes for the most memorable score among the most viewed/popular movies. This is how Newman and Howard keep increasing their count of win-less nominations
Art Direction
- The Aviator
- Lemony Snicket
- Finding Neverland
- Very Long Engagement
- Phantom of the Opera
Costume Design
- The Aviator
- Ray
- Finding Neverland
- Lemony Snicket
- Troy
Makeup
- Passion of the Christ
- The Sea Inside
- Lemony Snicket
Visual Effects
- Spider-Man 2
- I, Robot
- Harry Potter 3
Sound Editing
- Spider-Man 2
- The Incredibles
- Polar Express
Sound Mixing
- The Incredibles
- Spider-Man 2
- Ray
- The Aviator
- Polar Express
Original Song
- Believe (Polar Express)
- Learn to be Lonely (Phantom of the Opera)
- Accidentally in Love (Shrek 2)
- Al otro lado del rio (Motorcycle Diaries)
- Look to your Path (The Chorists)
This category was transformed into a Beyonce recital for some reason. Are there really no other singers willing to perform at the Oscars? While she did a pretty good job with Believe and Learn to be Lonely she completely butchered the beautiful Look to your Path by changing it from a choir piece into a solo act with choir backup.
Cinematography
The movies that truly stand out here are the two foreign ones, but Bruno Delbonnel had a better chance at winning at his first nomination with Amelie, while Xiaoding Zhao has an outside chance of being rewarded given that he has the only nomination for a true visual feast which everyone expected it nominated in the foreign film category. However, the votes for cinematography are awarded by all academy members, and not all of them have seen the movie. The frontrunners for the award are therefore Robert Richardson (Aviator) and Caleb Deschanel (Passion of Christ), both with 4 previous nominations. Will win: Richardson although he has one previous win, is known for his long, respected collaborations with Oliver Stone and will also benefit from Aviator's presumable success in several categories.
Editing
Thelma Schoonmaker shares her path with Martin Scorsese for a long time. However she did manage to break out of his chain of rejections and turn one of her 4 previous nominations into a win (Raging Bull). If this is Scorsese's year she will probably add her own Oscar to the celebrations. However, Joel Cox, Eastwood's Oscar-winning editor for Unforgiven, is hoping for the exact same situation. The spoiler may be Collateral but I am not counting on that. Will win: Aviator. Could win: Million Dollar Baby
Original Score
After missing out in the 2003 nominations, John Williams (Harry Potter) is back receiving his... 43rd nomination! (for both score and song). But no, he won't win this year (hopefully). Jan Kaczmarek is the only nominee supporting a best picture movie, but unfortunately for him it is the movie with the least traction. The battle is likely to be between 6 times nominee James Howard (The Village) and 7 times nominee Thomas Newman (Lemony Snicket), both with no previous wins. Will win: At the last minute I chickened out and changed my prediction to Jan Kaczmarek (Finding Neverland) as most other pundits predict. One thing to remember is that the very reason we end up with composers nominated so many times without a win is that the actual voting is done by the entire Academy body. And they go for the most popular film that they can recall the music to. Could win: Thomas Newman (Lemony Snicket) is my second choice although he is only the 4th favorite by most bookmakers.
Art Direction
Will win: Dante Ferretti for Aviator. He is at his 8th nomination with no win, this time for the most nominated movie of the year. Could win: Rick Heinricks (Lemony Snicket) won the ADG award.
Costume Design
Will win: Sandy Powell (Aviator) is likely to win her 2nd Oscar (Shakespeare in Love). Could win: Alexandra Byrne (Finding Neverland) could steal this win for her first win on her 3rd nomination. CDG awarded Colleen Atwood for Lemony Snicket.
Makeup
Will win: Lemony Snicket. Could win: The Sea Inside.
Visual Effects
Will/Should win: Spider-Man 2.
Sound Editing
Will/Should win: The Incredibles. Could win: Spider-Man 2.
Sound Mixing
Will/Should win: Ray. The movie is all about sound and music and since the score was not original therefore not eligible, this is the best category to recognize it. Could win: The Incredibles/Aviator/Spider-Man 2 are entirely plausible. Spider-Man 2 nominees combine between them a total previous of 24 nominations without a win. Will that matter? Probably too few voters will be aware of the fact.
Original Song
Should win: Without a doubt the best song here is Vois sur ton chemin from The Chorists. The song stays with you long after the movie is gone even though it is in French and you may not know what the lyrics are about. However, it is one of the foreign movies and not all voters might have seen it. Will win: Accidentally in Love is the catchiest tune out of the nominees. With no living legend to have a nominated song like in the previous years, it might as well go to Counting Crows. Could win: Believe seems to be the favorite of most pundits, but for no obvious reason... Potentially any song can win here.
Posted on February 2, 2005 03:56 PM