Oscars

Oscar 2004 Final Predictions

The time has come for the final predictions. I have made minor changes in the technical and standalone categories, the main one being Finding Neverland for Original Score. Voters are likely to vote for the score that they remembered best out of the movies that they saw, and Finding Neverland will likely benefit from his Best Picture nomination there.

Now onto the real thing - the big 8. You have a few choices: The overwhelming majority of the usual Oscar predictors go like this: Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood, Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman, Cate Blanchett, Sideways, Eternal Sunshine. The bookmakers still lean towards Aviator so their predictions seem to be: Aviator, Martin Scorsese, Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman, Cate Blanchett, Sideways, Eternal Sunshine.

So... where do I stand? My wishful thinking predictions would look like this: Ray, Martin Scorsese, Jamie Foxx, Imelda Staunton, Morgan Freeman, Natalie Portman, Motorcycle Diaries, Eternal Sunshine.

My final predictions...: Aviator, Martin Scorsese, Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman, Natalie Portman, Sideways, Eternal Sunshine. Why this line-up? Read on...

While I am still dreaming that everyone will vote with their hearts and go with Ray, in an unprecedented display of how an overnight superstar (Jamie Foxx) can carry on his own a movie about a bigger-than-life legend (Ray Charles) to the major prize, I realistically have to choose between Aviator and M$B. Recently the buzz has shifted tremendously in favor of M$B and Eastwood. However I do not think Scorsese will be completely ignored one more time. This puts most people in the position to pick a mixed result: M$B/Scorsese or Aviator/Eastwood for Best Picture/Best Director. But, no matter how much logic I put into picking one such combination, I can put an equal amount into the opposite. So rather than risking a 0/2 situation here, I decided to go with Aviator/Scorsese which might be correct only for one of the awards, but... 1/2 is better than 0/2.

As for the rest of the main categories, I really don't see any harm in predicting the obvious choices, rather than... there's always that ambition to outguess everyone and predict the big spoiler. Of course, history should have taught me that this kind of ambition is rarely successful. But hey, I will have my share of fun and predict Natalie Portman to be the surprise winner tonight.

My predicted total wins tally: 6 - Aviator, 2 - M$B, Ray, The Incredibles 1 - Shrek 2, Lemony Snicket, Sideways, Eternal Sunshine, Closer, Spiderman 2, Finding Neverland