Oscars

Oscar Nominations 2004 Posted on January 25, 2005

This morning the Oscar nominations were announced. There were some surprise nominees, there were perhaps some surprising ommissions, but overall the expected leading movies of the year received the expected acks. Leading the group, is The Aviator with 11 nominations, followed by Million Dollar Baby and Finding Neverland with 7, Ray with 6 and Sideways with 5.

The most obvious surprise nominations are for Mike Leigh as best director and best original screenplay for Vera Drake, a movie that received good critical support, but very little Oscar buzz except for leading actress Imelda Staunton. As a result Finding Neverland is the only best picture nominated movie without a best director nomination.

Oscar Nominations 2004 - How did I do? Posted on January 25, 2005

When will I ever learn?

The nominations were announced about 2 hours ago, and I just finished tallying my predictions. Overall I was 29/40... Pretty bad :). The good news was that I was 5/5 in the Best Picture prediction, but so was every other Oscar watcher out there since this race was indeed the most predictable. I was also 5/5 in the Best Actress category which was somewhat less set in stone. On the other hand, the Original Screenplay category tricked me with only 2/5 correct predictions.

Now, to the moral of this year (wasn't this the same moral two years ago and last year?) - wild-guesses do not work! And when the wild guesses are actually wishful thinking, then they most certainly will not work! In 3 categories I scored 3/5 because I included my favourites (Mike Nichols, Javier Bardem and Cloris Leachman) which, of course, didn't make it, and I picked the wrong likely candidate out of the rest. If I count the "almost" right predictions (including my immediate substitutes) the balance would be 37/40 with the only big surprise being Mike Leigh's nominations for Vera Drake. But enough about my predictions. You can check my final predictions in each category with some more comments on the particular nominations. I also color-coded the correct predictions, the almost correct ones and what I didn't anticipate at all.

Coming soon, comments on the actual nominations.

Almost final thoughts Posted on January 22, 2005

It is time for the final thoughts on the Oscar predictions. Tuesday Jan 25th, in the morning, the official nominations will be announced and this part of the game will be over. This year I decided not to attempt and predict the nominees in the foreign film, shorts, documentary or technical categories. While they are not necessarily harder to predict, I will resume to commenting on the choice of nominees rather than try to spoil them. So here are some hopefully final thoughts, although I reserve the right to make some last minute changes Monday night.

The meta-questions that need to be asked this year are: did the voters love Eternal Sunshine...?; did they hate Closer really? (missing some guild nominations); did they like Kill Bill?; did they all see Hotel Rwanda (and fell for it)?; will we have like last year recognition of foreign movies in the main categories?...

Voting for the Oscars Posted on January 22, 2005

One very important aspect in predicting the Oscar winners and especially the Oscar nominations before they are announced, is understanding the Academy componence and voting procedure. AMPAS consists of approximately 6,000 voting members and all eligible members of the Academy may vote in the Best Picture category, while Academy members in 12 branches will nominate achievements in up to an additional 21 categories. Films submitted in the Animated Feature and Foreign Language Film categories are screened and selected by special voting groups of Academy members.

In other words, actors nominate the actors, directors nominate the directors, etc. making the impact of the Guild nominations even more obvious on the outcome of the Oscar nominations since they represent, in principle, the exact set of people that will decide the Oscar nominations in the respective categories.

The Oscars lingo Posted on January 18, 2005

Forecasting the Oscars can be a full time job. It's not enough to have watched all the movies that are eligible for the awards. Actually, that's not even required for a true Oscar pundit, as it may lead to the personal preferences getting in the way of an objective prediction. And yes, predicting the Oscar nominees and then the winners themselves is becoming, at least for some, more and more an exact science. There are precursor awards which may have a bearing; there is the box-office; there is the charisma with respect to the Hollywood world of a certain actor or director; there are studio politics... Some Oscarologists put these factors into mathematical formulas. Others have defined laws and rules and try to figure each year when and where to apply them.

I am more in the latter category, or otherwise put, as much as I am a fan of statistics, I did not build a formula. That is not to say that I do not look at numbers and past history in my humble predictions, and of course, I am aware of some unwritten rules and, as much as I can, of all the relevant politics. As time will pass I will probably compile a section of links towards other Oscar specialists, for the readers enjoyment.

Best SCREENPLAY Posted on January 18, 2005

The predictions for both categories:

Original Screenplay

• Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine...)
• John Logan (The Aviator)
• Bill Condon (Kinsey)
• Zach Braff (Garden State)
• James L. White (Ray)

  ---

• Hotel Rwanda
• Brad Bird (The Incredibles)
• Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

Adapted Screenplay

• Sideways
• Million Dollar Baby
• Motorcycle Diaries
• Door in the Floor
• Finding Neverland

  ---

• Before Sunset

The Original Screenplay category proved to be the biggest spoiler for my predictions. Truth be told, Brad Bird's nomination for The Incredibles was quite expected, but I really didn't have much of a feel for this category so I prefered to stick with my very first predictions. Mike Leigh receive his surprise 2nd nomination of the evening for a total of 5 in his career.

The Adapted Screenplay section was much smoother. I am glad Motorcycle Diaries was recognized, while the reason I stayed away from Before Sunset was that it's pretty much a screenplay adapted after... itself, the original material being some story written by the same Linklater. However, a good set of nominees.

Best Supporting ACTRESS Posted on January 18, 2005

Current predictions:

• Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
• Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
• Laura Linney (Kinsey)
• Cloris Leachman (Spanglish)
• Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland)

  ---

• Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
• Natalie Portman (Closer)

Third time is not a charm, and my third attempt at outsmarting everyone with guessing a surprise nomination, backfired as well. No nomination for Leachman and out of the likely trio: Okonedo, Portman, Winslet, my choice was also the wrong one. Actually the one change that I was planning to make last night, was to include Portman instead of Winslet, but... I fell asleep instead :). Portman did receive her nomination despite the Actor's Guild snub, exposing the difference between the mass of actors represented in SAG and the "selected" ones that are part of the Academy.

At this point I may be crazy leaving out recent Golden Globe winner Natalie Portman. I am still torn wether Owen/Portman will make it in despite Closer being snubbed by SAG and other guilds, which is still very likely. The first three nominees seem sure bets now. Leachman is my personal favorite and wild-guess (when will I learn not to let myself influenced by personal feelings...) and she's fighting alongside Winslet, Portman and Okonedo for the other 2 spots.

Best Supporting ACTOR Posted on January 17, 2005

The current prediction:

• Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
• Thomas H. Church (Sideways)
• Clive Owen (Closer)
• Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey)
• Jamie Foxx (Collateral)

  ---

• Alan Alda (The Aviator)

Although I did mention Alda's name as a possible spoiler, I didn't quite consider him seriously. Of course, in the end of the day he is likely to be an "also ran", but so far he took Sarsgaard's place or, more sadly, Carradine's. On the other hand Jamie Foxx manages to receive nominations in both acting categories. Impressive.

Everyone seems to have accepted Jamie Foxx's leading role in Collateral as supporting performance, perhaps a sign that this category is fairly weak this year. Morgan Freeman and Hayden Church have received the strongest critical support. Owen and Sarsgaard however may find their spots endangered by 12 year old Freddie Highmore, veterans David Carradine and James Garner, or exuberant Rodrigo De la Serna.

Best ACTRESS Posted on January 17, 2005

And the predicted nominees are:

• Annette Benning (Being Julia)
• Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)
• Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
• Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
• Catalina Sandina Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

Well, in retrospect, given that I have guessed all 5 nominees, this doesn't look like such a tough category to predict. Basically I stayed away from the Uma Thurman fans wishful thinking and that paid off.

The first three actresses seem to be certain nominations, while Kate Winslet has a strong chance. For the fifth spot, I do not believe Uma Thurman will make it and I am going for the safest next bet with Moreno. If I were to follow my whim here I would probably go with Julie Delpy or even Nicole Kidman for the 5th nomination.

Best ACTOR Posted on January 17, 2005

The current predictions:

• Jamie Foxx (Ray)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)
• Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
• Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside)
• Paul Giamatti (Sideways)

  ---

• Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
• Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

The same story as in my best director predictions: predicting Javier Bardem was wishful thinking, while Paul Giamatti's omission is perhaps the most surprising ommission of this nomination morning. Eastwood and Cheadle are not surprising inclusions, but more people would've guessed a list without Johnny Depp rather than without Giamatti.

After winning the Golden Globes Foxx and DiCaprio have no worries. Giamatti looks like he won't be ignored again, and Depp is a Hollywood favorite which gives him a good chance. But then there are Liam Neeson, Don Cheadle and Javier Bardem...

Best DIRECTOR Posted on January 16, 2005

My current frontrunners:

• Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
• Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
• Alexander Payne (Sideways)
• Mike Nichols (Closer)
• Marc Forster (Finding Neverland)

  ---

• Taylor Hackford (Ray)
• Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

The risk of sneaking in a wild guess is that you are very likely to get 3/5 in what would normally be a 4/5 category: Hackford and Forster were the likely candidates, and Ray's support was stronger in the main categories. Mike Leigh is the big surprise of this year nominated for both director and screenplay.

In the Best Director category we again have a few people fighting for 2 slots: Marc Forster, Taylor Hackford, Alejandro Amenabar, Bill Condon, Zhang Yimou are all names mentioned with various degrees of likelyhood. And of course there's my wild choice Mike Nichols.

Best PICTURE Posted on January 16, 2005

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

• The Aviator (Miramax)
• Sideways (Fox Searchlight)
• Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros)
• Ray (Universal)
• Finding Neverland (Miramax)

This was indeed the most predictable race, with no surprise whatsoever. The Aviator, recent winner of the PGA is also the most nominated movie with 11 nods.

The Best Picture race is apparently the most boring race, but don't let the appearances fool you. Ray and even Finding Neverland are not guaranteed noms. Finding Neverland runs the risk of being the second Miramax movie, but it will probably overcome that on the Johnny Depp/Chocolat factor. Ray is a great movie but it might lose out the BP nomination to any of Kinsey, Closer, Hotel Rwanda or even Eternal Sunshine.... I will stick with the "boring" 5 though.