Best Actor
The current predictions:
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
- Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
- Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
- Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
- David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)
Indeed no major surprise here. No surprise at all here in fact. Since I had no particular inclination for wishful thinking in this category, I ended up playing by the book and going with the most predictable lineup.
This category has probably the first 3 names locked in. Howard and Strathairn fight for the remaining slots with Russel Crowe or even Jeff Daniels (Squid and the Whale). I can't think of a major surprise in this category though.
Philip S Hoffman (Capote)
Brilliantly playing the obnoxious self-absorbed Truman Capote, Hoffman already has the Golden Globe win under his belt alongside with a bundle of critic awards and a SAG nomination. He is the front-runner for the win even.
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
With a few critic award wins, Ledger is likely to ride smoothly on the back of Brokeback Mountain's success. The fact that he actually did a great acting job too, can't hurt either.
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Following in Jamie Foxx's footsteps, Phoenix is a sure nominee for a great performance, and the only candidate coming from a non heavily dramatic movie.
Terrance Howard (Hustle and Flow)
Howard's performance in Hustle and Flow has received many nominations and acclaim. The missing SAG nod might be concerning but, in a year when no other african-american actor seems to be on track for nominations, his performance is not likely to be overlooked. He had a strong performance in Crash as well, which can only solidify the support for him.
David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)
Strathairn could ride the wave of success for George Clooney's movie and get the nod for his strong performance. He has a tough competition though, so his nomination may be a toss-up.
Runners Up
Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale)
Daniels had an excellent performance in a movie that has some critical recognition, but only a Golden Globe nomination for Daniels. He would be my personal favorite over Strathairn, but the relative weight of the movies seems to favor Strathairn.
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
I am by no means a Crowe fan and, with his perpetual bad attitude, neither should be most of the Academy voters. However, he did have a good performance and SAG, Golden Globes had no problem acknowledging it.
Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)
Unlikely nomination, but the movie did seem to pick up pace and late support.
The Rest
Bill Murray gathered no buzz this year; Robert Downey Jr. is also overlooked; and the most surprising male performance of the year for me, Pierce Brosnan in The Matador is also passing unnoticed by everyone except Ebert & Roeper.