Best Actress
And the predicted nominees are:
- Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
- Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
- Charlize Theron (North Country)
- Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)
- Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World)
- Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Keira Knightley is perhaps the biggest surprise of the nominations announcement. Some pundits wishfully mentioned her name as a possibility, but very few truly believed in her chance. Congrats to her, even though she will be an "also ran" after March 5th.
Reese, Charlize and Felicity seem locked in, Judi Dench also, although she plays her usual type of role, while Q'Orianka... that's my wild guess of the year. She would totally deserve the nom though
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Reese Witherspoon cannot miss out on this nomination as, in all seriousness, she should be the one walking with a statue in March. But I'll get to her duel with Huffman after the nominations are announced :)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
She not only plays a transsexual which is the kind of transformation that appeals to the Academy, but she actually does a good acting job. Golden Globe winner, BFCA and SAG nominee, she should be a sure nomination.
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Charlize holds North Country together in a role that is clear Oscar bait. However, she may risk being shunned exactly because her role transformation may be seen too close to the one that already gave her the win for Monster.
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Her role is not particularly outstanding, but she commends respect and the Academy never fails to give it to her. GG, BFCA, SAG nominee.
Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World)
She is the spirit of Terrence Malick's new movie and while the movie hasn't been enough in theatres, I believe the screeners were distributed a while ago giving plenty of chance to the voters to take note of the new star.
Runners Up
Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
Only BFCA nomination and a movie that almost noone remembers doesn't seem to be enough to get Allen a nomination.
Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA nominations pretty much secure her an Oscar nod as well. Normally I would be quite happy about this, but... her performance was really mediocre.
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
She seems to be the most likely nomination for David Cronenberg's latest movie, but only a Golden Globe nomination seems to support her bid.
Claire Danes (Shopgirl)
She's so unlikely to get nominated (although deserving) that I should probably just list her at the "others" section, but... who knows.
Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
Good performance, but her Golden Globe nomination seems to be the only recognition she will get this year.
Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)
Solid performance, but in a movie that doesn't seem to generate enough support.