Oscars

Best Picture

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

• Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features)
• Crash (Lions Gate)
• Good Night and Good Luck (Warner Independent Pictures)
• Walk the Line (20th Century Fox)
• Munich (Dreamworks/Universal)

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• Capote

It turned out my favorite did not make it. I am sure it was pretty close, but given how the voting works, it is not entirely unexpected. Capote and Munich while perhaps on fewer ballots, probably had more #1 rankings than Walk the Line, since they are much more polarizing, political movies.

If I considered last year's Best Picture race the most boring of all the categories, this is certainly not the case now. Brokeback Mountain is the only movie guaranteed to be nominated. Walk the Line is one of my personal favorites and with the Golden Globes sweep, should have enough momentum to grab the nomination. Crash, the early release of 2005 that was not forgotten, seems to also have enough support and the right theme to receive the nod. Capote and Good Night and Good Luck have the right themes and apparent precursor support, but I would guess one of them may miss out in favor of Spielberg's Munich. Then there's The Constant Gardner which may sneak in at the last moment.

1. Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features)

   Brokeback Mountain's support is unquestionable. Loved not only by critics and award givers, but also by movie-goers, Ang Lee's movie is the frontrunner this year and it would be a big surprise if it will not walk away with the Oscar, let alone gain the nomination.

2. Walk the Line (20th Century Fox)

   Walk the Line may not be as strong as Ray was last year in terms of Oscar support, however it has swept the Golden Globes and has strong SAG support as well as being perhaps the only "darling" movie of this year's set of likely candidates.

3. Crash (Lions Gate)

   Crash is one of the best movies of the year and with universal guild support, it is bound to receive a nomination.

4. Good Night and Good Luck (WiP)

   This year has a lot of good movies with political messages, but George Clooney's stands out as a favorite to be nominated. The universal guild support (PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA) can't possibly hurt it either.

5. Munich (Universal)

   At this point I am feeling adventurous and predicting Munich to sneak in. While Capote has as strong a precursor support as any of the movies above, Munich has more of an epic feel to it and it also has... Steven Spielberg.

   Runners Up

6. Capote (Sony Pictures Classics)

   Capote has pretty much all the precursor nods that it could wish for and a main lead that is clear favorite in his category. Any safe bet you want to make on the nominations, you should include Capote in the top 5.

7. The Constant Gardner ()

   Fernardo Meirelles surprised everyone with City of Gods and even more with the nominations that the movie garnered almost entirely out of the blue. The Constant Gardner is receiving a lot of support from BAFTA and the movie was actually viewed in theatres by a lot of people.

8. Match Point ()

   I really wanted to have 3 spoilers listed so... I picked Match Point. Gaining a Best Picture nomination would be extremely surprising, although Woody Allen has done it before and may do it again.

Fallen Comrades

Memoirs of a Geisha really did not do that well, failing to receive any critical support and not nearly enough box-office support. Syriana could have been a great candidate, but it is probably labeled as a George Clooney movie and he already has one in the top 5. A History of Violence has no precursor support, King Kong is a solid box-office performer, but the Academy is not going to be swayed by Peter Jackson again.