Best Supporting Actor
The current prediction:
- George Clooney (Syriana)
- Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
- Matt Dillon (Crash)
- Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
- Terrence Howard (Crash)
- William Hurt (A History of Violence)
There was no surprise love in other categories for A History of Violence, but Hurt did make an impression with his very brief role. Overall another category with little surprise.
A category that is relatively open, with Clooney being the only seemingly sure bet. Dillon should make it in, unless Crash roles split their votes too much. Giamatti is overdue after being snubbed last year (and he won the SAG yesterday!!), Gyllenhaal is backed up by playing in the frontrunner best picture movie. I am leaning towards giving the last spot to Collins mainly by process of elimination, since I do not see William Hurt getting nominated, or another Crash member alongside Dillon (although that did happen at SAG and the Giamatti win may very well hint towards vote splitting)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Clooney seems to have everything going for him and he may be on track for acting, directing and screenplay nominations. Still, he is mainly an actor and this is the one category where he should not expect surprises.
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Giamatti may be overdue after the surprise snub last year for Sideways. On the other hand, Cinderella Man doesn't have a lot of traction so he might end up being a spectator again. SAG win indicates he's in though.
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Crash is gaining more and more momentum and the only thing preventing Dillon from receiving a nomination would be a three-way split with Cheadle and Howard.
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Jake is major co-star in the star movie of the year. Usually this is a ticket to a nomination.
Terrence Howard (Crash)
While Howard has a better shot at the best actor category, but... after watching the SAG last night I am starting to find it possible that he repeats Jamie Foxx's performance and gets nominated in both categories!
Runners Up
Clifton Collins Jr. (Capote)
Collins may not have much of a chance if Capote is not strong enough to get a best picture nomination... At the same time I am not convinced that any of the immediate runners-up can really get a nomination.
Don Cheadle (Crash)
Crash is gathering enough support, but 3 actors vying for the same category is rarely a good thing at the Oscars. Cheadle might have the extra edge here, since he was nominated last year as well.
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
I hate naming so many people for a category, but I hate even more seeing a nomination that I did not even consider. Well sometimes that's actually a good thing. Anyway, Hoskins had an almost lead role opposite Judi Dench and there's a good chance both of them will get nominated.
William Hurt (A History of Violence)
With 3 previous nominations and 1 win at his belt, Hurt seems to be cited by many as a favorite to make the Academy shortlist once more. However, there is no precursor recognition for him and he is in a movie that many would like to see mentioned in as many categories, but there is little indication that it will be remembered in any.
Donald Sutherland (Pride and Prejudice)
He was overlooked for way too long and is a great actor. This year's role is just as good an opportunity as any to make up for the past.
Frank Langella (Good Night and Good Luck)
The movie has a lot of support, but I doubt he will be able to get a nomination given the number of choices available this year.