Best Supporting Actress
The current predictions:
- Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
- Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
- Catherine Keener (Capote)
- Amy Adams (Junebug)
- Scarlett Johansson (Matchpoint)
- Frances McDormand (North Country)
Taking chances was not something that paid off this year. McDormand deserves her nomination more than Johansson would have, judging solely on this year's performance, therefore all is good after all. And yay! Amy Adams nominated!
I have a feeling I will keep changing my predictions until the last moment here. Adams and Keener are both among my favorites but their nominations are at odds with Scarlett Johansson, Maria Bello or Mc Dormand. After much pondering I will take a chance here and take McDormand out of my initial top 5 to make room for an overdue Johansson.
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Her SAG and Golden Globe wins give her a certain nomination in a category where anything is possible. If it were up to me, she would not be in the top 5 but... guess what? It is not up to me.
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
She was good and she comes from Brokeback Mountain. SAG and Golden Globe nomination as well as a BFCA win (tie) show she has plenty support.
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Keener was certainly a star in Capote but her role is almost invisible in comparison to the flamboyant main character and may easily be overlooked. BFCA and SAG noted her.
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Here comes the toughest job of the pundit trying to predict the logical nominations but at the same time always hoping that his favorite of the year will be among the recognized ones. Adams is surely not an outsider. Snubbed by the Golden Globes, she was not forgotten by SAG and she actually won the BFCA award (tie). Will her role be too genuine and seemingly ditsy for voters to truly appreciate its complexity?
Scarlett Johansson (Matchpoint)
I believe we should not underestimate Woody Allen's chances, and if I do a quick poll about how many times Johansson has been previously nominated I have a hunch that the predominant answer will be 2. In reality the answer is 0. She is overdue even though it's not her best performance.
Runners up
Frances McDormand (North Country)
The main problem with McDormand is that North Country is a movie that failed to create the expected impact. However Golden Globes, SAG, BFCA remembered her in their nominations and she is a familiar name for the Academy voters (3 previous nominations and 1 win)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
While I don't share everyone else's intuition (or is it daydreaming?) that Cronenberg's movie will be the "surprise" hit at these Oscars, Bello has a real chance with a strong performance that was remembered both by the Golden Globes and the BFCA.
Who else?
Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Diane Keaton (The Family Stone)
They are both star actresses with Academy stature, in roles well appreciated this year, but not sufficiently to get them a nomination.