Oscars

Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney (Syriana)	Matt Dillon (Crash)	Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)	Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)	William Hurt (A History of Violence)

Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal/George Clooney Could Win: Paul Giamatti Will Win: George Clooney "I guess that means I am not winning director tonight!". Clooney is the king of Hollywood and this win, and his speech only confirmed it. A little too thankful to the Academy, but still.

Very different actors play very different characters in this category.

George Clooney, everyone says, is bound to leave with at least one Oscar out of his three nominations. And despite having great success as director and screenwriter, he is still foremost an actor. He played against type as the world-weary agent betrayed by his own government and... everyone loves him no matter what he does.

Clooney may find himself in trouble however due to one of two Oscars habits: the power of a leading movie and the rule of compensation for previous snubs. The first situation brings up Jake Gyllenhaal with a performance that may be worthy of an Oscar but, despite Brokeback Mountain's frontrunner status, none of its actors may get a win. He has the best shot however and it would not be a major disappointment if he won. However, voters that snub Ledger in the main acting category will probably find it more equitable if his co-star would not win either.

In the compensation category we have the rather scary prospect of Paul Giamatti winning the Oscar as he won the SAG. Don't get me wrong, Giamatti was very convincing as the energetic boxing manager and coach Joe Gould, but his presence on the shortlist is due mainly to the incredible snub of last year when his acclaimed performance in Sideways did not make the Academy top 5.

Matt Dillon and William Hurt have mostly theoretical chances. Dillon has a memorable performance in Crash and is the only member of the SAG Ensemble Cast winner movie to receive an individual nomination. Hurt has a great comeback with a very brief but equally memorable role in David Cronenberg's History of Violence, a movie that is either loved or completely ignored by voters. As the nominations showed, there is enough support for Hurt, but I doubt it can translate into a win.