Oscars

Best Screenplay

Original Screenplay

• Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco (Crash)
• George Clooney & Grant Heslov (Good Night and Good Luck)
• Woody Allen (Matchpoint)
• Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale)
• Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)

Adapted Screenplay

• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• The Constant Gardener
• A History of Violence
• Munich

Original Screenplay

Could Win: Virtually anyone has a chance here and none of the five would produce a major upset if they won. However it seems that Haggis (Crash) and Baumbach (Squid and Whale) may have the better chance. Clooney is receiving lots of praise, but I think he is still better loved as an actor. Should Win: Stephen Gaghan (Syriana) just edges above Haggis & Moresco as my favorite. Weaving an intricate web of corruption and political control, he creates a very powerful story, told in an unconventional yet effective way. Will Win: Crash.

Adapted Screenplay

Could Win: Capote. Tremendous buzz around the movie, adaping a novel about writing a famous novel, Hoffman's success - all play in its favor, but will it be enough? Will Win: Brokeback Mountain. It is not easy to adapt a famous yet delicate short story and turn it into a mainstream success. Should Win: I'd say Brokeback Mountain does deserve the win.