January 2006 Archives

2005 Nominations Tally Posted on January 31, 2006

After adding quick reactions to all the categories that I predicted nominations in, and before moving towards guessing who the winners might be in a month's time, there is just one thing left to do: tallying the nominations.

Brokeback Mountain was the expected frontrunner with 8 nominations, followed by Crash, Good Night... and Memoirs of a Geisha each with 6 nominations. I would add however that none of Geisha's nominations are in the major categories quite properly reflecting that the movie's merits do not lie in acting, directing or the screenplay. With 5 nominations Capote, Munich and Walk the Line round up the leader's group.

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Oscar Nominations announced! Posted on January 31, 2006

The Oscar nominations were announced about 1hour ago and I ran a quick update through the pages indicating my correct guesses, the ones I had almost right (that means I listed them as alternates or I insisted on predicting a surprise that never happened) and the true surprises.

Actually there were no surprises at all, at least in the major categories. Some minor surprises, such as Walk the Line not getting nominated for Best Picture were predicted by many. Perhaps the only notable surprise is Keira Knightley nominated for her role in Pride and Prejudice. Oh well, welcome to boredom-land. I got 35/40 correct and if I would've avoided predicting surprises I would've been 37 or 38 out of 40...

I will post more comments on each category as I get more time, probably later tonight.

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Final Nomination Predictions Posted on January 30, 2006

My final predictions are in. Overall I can sum-up my picks by not believing in A History of Violence, trusting in Spielberg and Allen and, as always, trying to predict those "surprises" that everyone hopes will happen. What did I change?

First I adapted my Screenplay predictions to reflect Syriana's change of category. It would be sad to have it miss out on a nomination because of the confusion, but I think it will have enough votes to get in nevertheless.

In the Supporting Actress category, the only one I would not want on the list, is the only one certain to be nominated (Weisz). I hope Amy Adams will stay in and I gamble big time on Scarlett Johansson getting nominated as a compensation for her previous snubs. In the men's category, I will hazard guessing that Terrence Howard may pick up 2 noms this year.

Best Actress is where I chose to put my biggest gamble this year. And her name is Q'Orianka Kilcher! No change in my view's on the Best Actor competition although I would not be surprised if Russel Crowe manages to sneak in.

I am also not changing my predictions for Best Director. It is a bit sad to try and guess who the 4 losers are who, in all likelihood, will only be listed to applaud Ang Lee's win. Finally, I also stick with my initial Best Picture predictions for lack of a better hunch.

Now, time to go to sleep and wake up early to hear the nominations.

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2005 SAG Winners Posted on January 29, 2006

  • Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
  • Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
  • Female Actor in a Leading Role: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
  • Male Actor in a Leading Role: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)

  • Ensemble Cast: Crash

  • Lifetime Achievement: Shirley Temple

Unfortunately the SAG did not create any surprise in the female supporting category by going with Golden Globe winner Rachel Weisz thus reducing even further the chances for a surprise at the Oscars but also potentially reducing Amy Adams' chances for an Oscar nomination. On the other hand they certainly shook things up a bit in the male supporting actor category where they award Giamatti who was probably considered to have the 4th chance in the line-up at best. Will this point towards a shake-up at Oscars? It does cement Giamatti's chances at a nomination after the surprising Oscar snub of last year.

In the female lead category the voters task was easier than there will be at the Oscars, as Felicity Huffman easily won an award for her role in Desperate Housewives, thus noone felt any remorse voting for Reese Witherspoon as best actress in a motion picture. Reese improved her speech since her Golden Globe win, this time thanking and dedicating the rule to June Carter who she plays in Walk the Line.

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And the 2005 DGA Winner is... Posted on January 29, 2006

... Ang Lee. Well... there is absolutely no surprise there but, to be fair, there is no reason there should have been one. Ang Lee was in the spotlight once before for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and won the DGA and pretty much all other awards he was nominated for except for... the Oscar, which went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic (best picture was Gladiator). This is likely to be Ang Lee's year and so far nothing indicates otherwise.

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Best Screenplay Posted on January 26, 2006

The predictions for both categories:

Original Screenplay

  • Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco (Crash)
  • George Clooney & Grant Heslov (Good Night and Good Luck)
  • Woody Allen (Matchpoint)
  • Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale)
  • Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)

Alternate: Cliff Hollingsworth & Akiva Goldsman (Cinderella Man)

Adapted Screenplay

  • Brokeback Mountain
  • Capote
  • The Constant Gardener
  • Munich
  • A History of Violence

Alternate: Walk The Line

Oh boy, you know these are the most boring nominations when I get 10/10 in the screenplay categories!!

The screenplay categories have been turned upside down by the rather bizarre decision that he Academy made, to almost silently switch Syriana from the adapted category to be original screenplay. The news of the change broke public only 3 days before the voting ballots were due in the mail, but the Academy has sent in December the lists which included Syriana in the original screenplay category... Are the voters earlier with mailing their ballots than the average person is with their taxes? Syriana might just miss out on a nomination entirely.

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Best Supporting Actress Posted on January 26, 2006

The current predictions:

  • Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
  • Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Catherine Keener (Capote)
  • Amy Adams (Junebug)
  • Scarlett Johansson (Matchpoint)
  • Frances McDormand (North Country)

Taking chances was not something that paid off this year. McDormand deserves her nomination more than Johansson would have, judging solely on this year's performance, therefore all is good after all. And yay! Amy Adams nominated!

I have a feeling I will keep changing my predictions until the last moment here. Adams and Keener are both among my favorites but their nominations are at odds with Scarlett Johansson, Maria Bello or Mc Dormand. After much pondering I will take a chance here and take McDormand out of my initial top 5 to make room for an overdue Johansson.

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Best Supporting Actor Posted on January 26, 2006

The current prediction:

  • George Clooney (Syriana)
  • Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
  • Matt Dillon (Crash)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Terrence Howard (Crash)
  • William Hurt (A History of Violence)

There was no surprise love in other categories for A History of Violence, but Hurt did make an impression with his very brief role. Overall another category with little surprise.

A category that is relatively open, with Clooney being the only seemingly sure bet. Dillon should make it in, unless Crash roles split their votes too much. Giamatti is overdue after being snubbed last year (and he won the SAG yesterday!!), Gyllenhaal is backed up by playing in the frontrunner best picture movie. I am leaning towards giving the last spot to Collins mainly by process of elimination, since I do not see William Hurt getting nominated, or another Crash member alongside Dillon (although that did happen at SAG and the Giamatti win may very well hint towards vote splitting)

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Rounding up the 2005 Oscar Nomination Predictions Posted on January 22, 2006

With the ballots already in the mail and less than 10 days left until the nominations are announced it is finally time to count the awards and precursors and take my best shot at guessing which names will be announced early morning on the 31st.

You can check out the all the 2005 nomination predictions or individually from the menu on the left.

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Best Actress Posted on January 22, 2006

And the predicted nominees are:

  • Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
  • Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
  • Charlize Theron (North Country)
  • Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)
  • Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World)
  • Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)

Keira Knightley is perhaps the biggest surprise of the nominations announcement. Some pundits wishfully mentioned her name as a possibility, but very few truly believed in her chance. Congrats to her, even though she will be an "also ran" after March 5th.

Reese, Charlize and Felicity seem locked in, Judi Dench also, although she plays her usual type of role, while Q'Orianka... that's my wild guess of the year. She would totally deserve the nom though

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Best Actor Posted on January 22, 2006

The current predictions:

  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
  • Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
  • Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
  • David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)

Indeed no major surprise here. No surprise at all here in fact. Since I had no particular inclination for wishful thinking in this category, I ended up playing by the book and going with the most predictable lineup.

This category has probably the first 3 names locked in. Howard and Strathairn fight for the remaining slots with Russel Crowe or even Jeff Daniels (Squid and the Whale). I can't think of a major surprise in this category though.

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Best Director Posted on January 22, 2006

My current frontrunners:

  • Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
  • George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck)
  • Steven Spielberg (Munich)
  • Woody Allen (Matchpoint)
  • Paul Haggis (Crash)
  • Bennet Miller (Capote)

I probably would have guessed Cronenberg before Miller, but I knew that Woody Allen was a semi-wild pick.

While Ang Lee is locked in and George Clooney would be terribly dissapointed if he won't hear his name listed on the directors shortlist, the rest of the spots are not as easy to predict. Spielberg, Woody Allen, Paul Haggis, Cronenberg, Bennet Miller are equally hopeful. If I chose to gamble here, I would do it with Terrence Malick.

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Best Picture Posted on January 22, 2006

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

  • Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features)
  • Crash (Lions Gate)
  • Good Night and Good Luck (Warner Independent Pictures)
  • Walk the Line (20th Century Fox)
  • Munich (Dreamworks/Universal)
  • Capote

It turned out my favorite did not make it. I am sure it was pretty close, but given how the voting works, it is not entirely unexpected. Capote and Munich while perhaps on fewer ballots, probably had more #1 rankings than Walk the Line, since they are much more polarizing, political movies.

If I considered last year's Best Picture race the most boring of all the categories, this is certainly not the case now. Brokeback Mountain is the only movie guaranteed to be nominated. Walk the Line is one of my personal favorites and with the Golden Globes sweep, should have enough momentum to grab the nomination. Crash, the early release of 2005 that was not forgotten, seems to also have enough support and the right theme to receive the nod. Capote and Good Night and Good Luck have the right themes and apparent precursor support, but I would guess one of them may miss out in favor of Spielberg's Munich. Then there's The Constant Gardner which may sneak in at the last moment.

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Golden Globes 2005 Winners Posted on January 16, 2006

The show is on and here are the main winners along with whatever brief comments added while watching along:

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Guild Nominations Posted on January 15, 2006

As you may already know the most important precursors in determining what movies have the best chance at an Oscar nomination (and later on at the awards) are the Guilds. The reason is quite simple - while the voters in the guilds are a much larger number than the "elite" few that are also Academy voters, there is definitely some osmosis in the preferences a certain branch shows in their voting.

Either way here are the nominees that the guilds selected as their favorites of 2005:

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63rd Golden Globe Predictions Posted on January 14, 2006

Predicting the Golden Globes is quite a different game than predicting the Oscars, but it can nevertheless be fun. So, in preparation for tomorrow night's ceremony, let's have a quick look at the nominations. That might also give me the opportunity to review the movies that I have yet to watch.

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Jon Stewart to host the 78th Academy Awards telecast Posted on January 06, 2006

Producer Gil Cates announced yesterday that Jon Stewart has been set to host the 78th Academy Awards telecast which will be held on March 5th 2006 and will be broadcast live from the Kodak Theatre by the ABC Television Network starting with 5pm PST. Host of Comedy Central's award winning The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, it is the first time that Stewart will host the Oscars. He was chosen after reportedly Billy Crystal turned down the chance to host for the 9th time the show due to previous engagements. Last year's show was hosted by Chris Rock while Steve Martin and Whoopi Goldberg hosted the show 2 and 4 times respectively in the past years. Stewart commented saying "As a performer, I’m truly honored to be hosting the show. Although, as an avid watcher of the Oscars, I can’t help but be a little disappointed with the choice. It appears to be another sad attempt to smoke out Billy Crystal.".

With Jon Stewart's known slyness, sarcasm and uncompromising comments, this promises to be a very interesting show.

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