Oscars

Best Picture

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

• Babel (Paramount)
• The Departed (Warner Bros)
• Dreamgirls (DreamWorks)
• The Queen (Miramax)
• Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)

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• Letters from Iwo Jima (Dreamworks)

Well... the above says it all: no Dreamgirls, but Letters from Iwo Jima is in. Perhaps biggest surprise of the announcement.

This category seems to be almost set in stone... Babel, Departed, Dreamgirls are sure nominations. The other two spots however are theoretically up for grabs. The only problem is, it's hard to see any of the followers standing out.

1. Babel (Paramount)

   Babel may not be Innaritu's strongest movie to date and it may feel (unjustly so) to some to be a weaker Crash, but it is still a powerful drama, with good acting and sufficient buzz to be sure of a nomination.

2. The Departed (Warner Bros)

   The very successful (albeit flawed) adaptation of the asian hit Infernal Affairs is bound to get a nomination as well. I don't know why... Probably because it's Scorsese. And Leo. And a bunch of other big names. And every single one of them dies in the end. So it must be good.

3. Dreamgirls (DreamWorks)

   We are way past the time when a musical had to break down many voter's barriers in order to be noticed. We are now expecting to see a musical nominated and Dreamgirls may very well be the best picture out of all those with a chance of being nominated.

4. The Queen (Miramax)

   Critic's favorite, brilliant performance by Hellen Mirren, but is this enough for a nomination?

5. Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)

   Well... there is certainly room for a cute nomination here. Lots of acclaim. However, this is almost a safe choice given the alternatives: Borat?

   Runners Up

6. Bobby (Weinstein Co.)

   You know what? It got SAG's nomination for ensemble cast. Snubbed by most others, this may be the surprise nomination.

7. Little Children (New Line)

   I was quite disappointed by the movie, yet Todd Fields is pretty good at capturing the attention with personal drama. However, no precursor nominations indicate that it's not going to happen.

8. Borat

   No, I wasn't kidding about Borat actually having a chance. Is the Academy going to prove their "open-mindedness" with Borat? I doubt it. But it's not entirely impossible.

9. Letters from Iwo Jima (Dreamworks)

   Even though Clint Eastwood is halving his odds with his two movies, if one is going to make it would be the Japanese one. At least it's not eligible as Foreign Language Film like the Globes... Geez.

Could've made it

Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth are enjoying great reviews and relative box office success, but they are a bit too off-beat for the Academy. Volver could make it out of the Foreign Film and into the big league. The Good Shepherd and Blood Diamond could have been but somehow every award has ignored them and so will the Oscars.