Oscars

Best Actor

Current predictions:

• Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
• Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
• Peter O'Toole (Venus)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) (The Departed)
• Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking)

  ---

• Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Eckhart was wishful thinking on my part and Gosling was a safe prediction that many made. But, the big story is DiCaprio getting the nod for Blood Diamond rather than Departed. That may indicate much less support for Departed than predicted.

Forest Whitaker's nomination is all but announced. Peter O'Toole is a safe bet although there might be some reluctance nominating him when he's not expected to win, after he got a lifetime achievement. Leo could cancel himself out with his two eligible roles; Will Smith seems safe; Ryan Gosling seems to be receiving critical buzz and be the main candidate for the last role but... he could be replaced by Eckhart or even Cohen.

1. Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

   He emerges both as the clear frontrunner, with lots of critic support and Golden Globe win, as well as truly one of the best performances of the year. Nomination is certain.

2. Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)

   Smith manages to give a performance appreciated by everyone and that is likely to fly him towards a safer nomination than one would guess.

3. Peter O' Toole (Venus)

   Oh boy. Do you nominate O'Toole who had so many great roles, but managed each time to lose to mostly equally deserving nominees (Brando, Peck, etc.)? Do you do that while knowing that in all likelyhood he may lose again to Whitaker? Or you spare him the agony?

4. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)

   Leo competes mostly with himself as he seems to get significant recognition for his role in Blood Diamond. Will voters take that into account and realize they should go with the perceived frontrunner or will they simply go with their preference and risk leaving him out altogether.

5. Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking)

   Well. Not sure I should leave this at number five. I somehow don't feel Gosling's position to be safe though and I therefore wobble between the two of them and Cohen.

6. Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)

   Can the Academy follow the footsteps of the Golden Globes? Will they attempt to be even mildly hip? He will probably lose out, but it would be an interesting sight to see him nominated. Of course there are many for whom this would seem like a major offense.

7. Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

   Most pointers indicate that he will be the 5th. SAG nomination is the strongest support he got. However, how many voters have really seen his performance and how many of them will actually prefer him to Eckhart or Cohen?

Others

Ken Watanabe is appreciated by the Academy and if Letters from Iwo Jima and Clint are loved this year, so will Watanabe. Clive Owen was strong in Children of Men but while that movie seems to get last minute buzz, I don't think it's truly enough for a nomination. Nor deserved really, although the choice this year is rather weak. Of course, Leo may be nominated for Blood Diamond, which counts as a separate possibility.