Oscars

Best Actress

Current predictions:

• Helen Mirren (The Queen)
• Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
• Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
• Penelope Cruz (Volver)
• Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Mirren and Dench are sure shots and it looks like Meryl Streep cannot be shaken away from another nom either. Cruz should be getting a spot as well, but the race seems wide open for the 5th place. Kate Winslet seems to be everyone's favorite, however I am almost betting on Bening and you never know if the voters won't surprise us for real with nominating Deron or Gyllenhaal.

1. Helen Mirren (The Queen)

   Mirren should start working on a better acceptance speech than the one she gave at the Globes. She is the clear frontrunner and a nomination is certain.

2. Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)

   Another sure nomination for Dench. Perhaps her best role in years since she is out of her usual "queen" persona.

3. Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)

   I am most tired of seeing Streep nominated. Yet I think it will happen once more.

4. Penelope Cruz (Volver)

   She really deserves a nomination here and she will get it for a performance in her native language. Oscar loves this kind of rewarding.

5. Kate Winslet (Little Children)

   It is hard to go against a strong performance in a film that is generally acclaimed. However, I find her spot somewhat wobbly.

6. Annette Bening (Running with Scissors)

   She is extremely deserving of a nomination, but the movie is a mess and everyone agreed on that. Can voters overlook the movie and focus on the performance?

7. Laura Dern (Inland Empire)

   Dern's performance is arguably the best any actress has given this year, short of perhaps Mirren. However out of those few that have watched Lynch's movie, how many would be able to appreciate her performance in a surrealistic movie that lacks any conventional narrative? And if Naomi Watts didn't get nominated for her brilliant work in Mullholland Drive, it would almost be unfair for Dern to make it.

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby)

   Appreciated performance in a small movie. Probably small enough to be overlooked.

Others

Renee Zellwegger received some buzz for Miss Potter but presumably not enough among so many other choices. Cate Blanchett had a number of good performances this year The Good German, Babel, but she will probably get nominated as supporting actress for Notes on a Scandal. And speaking of Naomi Watts, she could get noticed for her work in The Painted Veil, but that would be a surprise given the emphasis that her competition gets.