Oscars

Best Screenplay

Predictions for both categorties:

Original screenplay:

• Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
• Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Zach Helm (Stranger than Fiction)
• Peter Morgan (The Queen)
• Guillermo del Torro (Pan's Labyrinth)

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• Iris Yamashita (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Possible: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

Adapted screenplay:

• William Monahan (The Departed)
• Jason Reitman (Thank You for Smoking)
• Aline Brosh McKenna (The Devil Wears Prada)
• Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
• Todd Field & Tom Perrotta (Little Children)

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• Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)
• Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)

Possible: Sacha Baron Cohen & co. (Borat), Jeremy Brock & Peter Morgan (The Last King of Scotland)

Biggest surprise is Yamashita's nomination for Letters from Iwo Jima. In the Adapted section, as predicted, the race was wide open: I still don't know what Borat is adapted from. Patrick Marber is a respected writer and Notes deserves the nomination. I am confused about Cuaron's nomination given that I didn't find the Children of Men script (or movie for that matter) much above a usual action-scifi flick except for direction and camerawork.

The Original screenplay seems to be a bit more clear-cut, with the last two spots contended by four movies: Pan, United93, Volver or Stranger than Fiction. I am tempted to fall for Pan's Labyrinth buzz but only for this category, while I see Stranger than Fiction being a classic choice. A last minute change in my prediction would be between the 9/11 script for United 93 and Pan.

The Adapted nominees, on the other hand, may come from a much larger pool. Notes on a Scandal, The Peinted Veil, Children of Men could also be among the nominees and this is only citing a few. Not sure what Borat's script is adapted from, but the WGA nomination is a bit worrying that it may actually turn into an Oscar nod.