Technical Categories
Marked below are my predictions as to who will win and who could win (my 2nd guess). For my comments and opinions on who should win, scroll all the way down. Most open races are Editing, Art Direction and Score.
Cinematography
- Black Dahlia
- Children of Men
- The Illusionist
- Pan's Labyrinth
- The Prestige
Editing
- Babel
- Blood Diamond
- Children of Men
- The Departed
- United 93
Art Direction
- Dreamgirls
- Good Shepherd
- Pan's Labyrinth
- Pirates of the Caribbean 2
- The Prestige
Costume Design
- Curse of Golden Flower
- Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie Antoinette
- The Queen
Makeup
- Apocalypto
- Click
- Pan's Labyrinth
Visual Effects
- Pirates of the Caribbean 2
- Poseidon
- Superman Returns
Original Score
- Babel (Gustavo Santaolalla)
- The Good German (Thomas Newman)
- Notes on Scandal (Phillip Glass)
- Pan's Labyrinth (Javier Navarrete)
- The Queen (Alexandre Desplat)
Relative surprise here. Very soon after the Brokeback Mountain win, Santaolalla gets a second. May this indicate strong support for Babel in Best Picture as well?
Sound Editing
- Apocalypto
- Blood Diamond
- Flags of Our Fathers
- Letters From Iwo Jima
- Pirates of the Caribbeans 2
A bit surprising. Can this award foreshadow some more surprising wins for Iwo Jima?
Sound Mixing
- Apocalypto
- Blood Diamond
- Dreamgirls
- Flags of our Fathers
- Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Original Song
- Cars (Our Town)
- An Inconvenient Truth (I Need to Wake Up)
- Dreamgirls (Listen)
- Dreamgirls (Patience)
- Dreamgirls (Love You, I Do)
Was this a political vote too? Either way it was not completely surprising, although I still think Listen was the best song of the group but also suffered from split Dreamgirls votes.
Cinematography
Looks like the battle will be between Children of Men, a movie whose appeal I did not get and Pan's Labyrinth who may be slightly over-hyped but I find it to be one of the best movies of the year. However, Emmanuel Lubezki is at his 4th nomination and is extremely well loved by the community. This should be enough to make his win a done deal.
Editing
The only one that's out of the question here is Blood Diamond. If there is a contingent of Children of Men admirers here, they will go for it, but some may also appreciate United 93's tension. The Departed and Babel share the more classic votes. One of the most open races. Last year's win Crash would match this year's Babel. Two years ago Thelma Shoonmaker won for Aviator which would point towards another win for her in Departed. In 2001, the award went to a non-frontrunner, Black Hawk Down.
Art Direction
This is another category that can be very wide open. However, it's likely that the battle will be between the default choice Dreamgirls and the deserving Pan. John Myhre however, won recently for Chicago and even Memoirs of a Geisha, therefore I hope he won't get a third win for Dreamgirls. The Prestige and Pirates of the Caribbean are possible spoilers, but with small chances.
Costume Design
While Prada and Queen have a legitimate chance, the battle is likely to be between the obvious choice Dreamgirls and the... other obvious choice Marie Antoinette. I give the edge to the veteran Milena Canonero who earns her 8th nomination (2 wins) despite the movie's limited popularity.
Makeup
Click?... Click?!??.
Visual Effects
There should be no contest here.
Original Score
This is a tricky category. Desplat is nominated for the weaker score this year (The Painted Veil was what everyone was expected to see here) but for a movie that has strong support. Newman is at his 8th nomination and looking for the first win while Navarrete comes out of the blue with a memorable score. Santaolalla who won last year is not likely to repeat and Phillip Glass's music while powerful and moving still does not fully echo with the voters. I'll go with Pan's Labyrinth with The Queen as a potential spoiler.
Sound Editing
Not much to say here. Pirates should have no competition and is the right type of movie for this category.
Sound Mixing
The guy nominated for Apocalypto is at his 19th nomination with no win so far. Yet this category is likely to fair well with the elephant in the room: Dreamgirls.
Original Song
Is it the first time we have a song from a documentary nominated? How about three songs from the same movie? Regardless of the chance that Dreamgirls may split votes among the three songs, Listen should still emerge victorious as most voters will feel they give it to Beyonce.
Posted on February 21, 2007 12:12 AM | TrackBack