Oscars

Best Picture Posted on January 31, 2007

Babel (Paramount)	The Departed (Warner Bros)	Letters from Iwo Jima (Dreamworks / Warner Bros)	Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)	The Queen (Miramax)

Should Win: Little Miss Sunshine Could Win: The Departed / Babel Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine

Oh well... small movies have to wait another year... Too bad.

2006 Nominees Announced Posted on January 23, 2007

Early morning in Los Angeles, the stars anxiously await the phone calls to announce them the good news... Or they actually wake up and watch the announcements, but they pretend not to after that.

Anyway, the deed is done and we know the 2006 Oscar Nominees. I updated my predictions, as always, marking the correct guesses, the ones I got almost right (being secondary guesses) or the true surprises. There are three main surprises: Dreamgirls misses out on Best Picture nomination in favor of Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima. Leonardo DiCaprio gets his nomination but for Blood Diamond instead of Departed. And Almodovar's Volver doesn't make the top 5 in Foreign Film.

The tally stands as follows: 8 nominations for Dreamgirls (but 3 of them are for Best Song!!), 7 nods for Babel, 6 for Pan's Labyrinth (!!) and The Queen, 5 for Blood Diamond and The Departed, 4 for Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Notes on a Scandal and Pirates of the Caribbean.

Best Screenplay Posted on January 22, 2007

Predictions for both categorties:

Original screenplay:

• Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
• Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Zach Helm (Stranger than Fiction)
• Peter Morgan (The Queen)
• Guillermo del Torro (Pan's Labyrinth)

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• Iris Yamashita (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Possible: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

Adapted screenplay:

• William Monahan (The Departed)
• Jason Reitman (Thank You for Smoking)
• Aline Brosh McKenna (The Devil Wears Prada)
• Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
• Todd Field & Tom Perrotta (Little Children)

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• Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)
• Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)

Possible: Sacha Baron Cohen & co. (Borat), Jeremy Brock & Peter Morgan (The Last King of Scotland)

Biggest surprise is Yamashita's nomination for Letters from Iwo Jima. In the Adapted section, as predicted, the race was wide open: I still don't know what Borat is adapted from. Patrick Marber is a respected writer and Notes deserves the nomination. I am confused about Cuaron's nomination given that I didn't find the Children of Men script (or movie for that matter) much above a usual action-scifi flick except for direction and camerawork.

The Original screenplay seems to be a bit more clear-cut, with the last two spots contended by four movies: Pan, United93, Volver or Stranger than Fiction. I am tempted to fall for Pan's Labyrinth buzz but only for this category, while I see Stranger than Fiction being a classic choice. A last minute change in my prediction would be between the 9/11 script for United 93 and Pan.

The Adapted nominees, on the other hand, may come from a much larger pool. Notes on a Scandal, The Peinted Veil, Children of Men could also be among the nominees and this is only citing a few. Not sure what Borat's script is adapted from, but the WGA nomination is a bit worrying that it may actually turn into an Oscar nod.

Best Supporting Actress Posted on January 21, 2007

Current predictions:

• Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
• Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
• Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
• Adriana Barraza (Babel)

This is one race where the top five are very likely to be set in stone. Not because they are miles ahead of their competition but... because there is almost no competition. This seems very strange for a supporting race.

Best Supporting Actor Posted on January 21, 2007

Current predictions:

• Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
• Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
• Djimon Honsou (Blood Diamond)
• Brad Pitt (Babel)

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• Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

No real surprise here. Wahlberg pulls ahead of Nicholson from Departed(deservingly so) but also ahead of Pitt and the rest. Probably this was the closest call of all major categories

This is a race that is open pretty much all the way with about 10 people arguably in the run. Jack Nicholson can sneak ahead of Brad Pitt, but also Michael Sheen or James McAvoy could replace any of the listed five.

Best Actress Posted on January 21, 2007

Current predictions:

• Helen Mirren (The Queen)
• Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
• Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
• Penelope Cruz (Volver)
• Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Mirren and Dench are sure shots and it looks like Meryl Streep cannot be shaken away from another nom either. Cruz should be getting a spot as well, but the race seems wide open for the 5th place. Kate Winslet seems to be everyone's favorite, however I am almost betting on Bening and you never know if the voters won't surprise us for real with nominating Deron or Gyllenhaal.

Best Actor Posted on January 20, 2007

Current predictions:

• Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
• Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
• Peter O'Toole (Venus)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) (The Departed)
• Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking)

  ---

• Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Eckhart was wishful thinking on my part and Gosling was a safe prediction that many made. But, the big story is DiCaprio getting the nod for Blood Diamond rather than Departed. That may indicate much less support for Departed than predicted.

Forest Whitaker's nomination is all but announced. Peter O'Toole is a safe bet although there might be some reluctance nominating him when he's not expected to win, after he got a lifetime achievement. Leo could cancel himself out with his two eligible roles; Will Smith seems safe; Ryan Gosling seems to be receiving critical buzz and be the main candidate for the last role but... he could be replaced by Eckhart or even Cohen.

Nominations Predictions Posted on January 20, 2007

We are only days away from the Nominations announcements (Tuesday morning) and I am finally putting up my predictions as well.

Interesting options this year with many categories open for surprise nominations.

Best Director Posted on January 19, 2007

Current predictions:

• Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
• Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu (Babel)
• Stephen Frears (The Queen)
• Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
• Paul Greengrass (United 93)

The only sure nominee is Scorsese. Innaritu is liked and his movie is strong; Frears did a good job but is mostly coat-tailing Helen Mirren so his position is uncertain. Everybody loves Clint and they might not be tired of him. Then there's Greengrass, Condon, Almodovar or the Miss Sunshine duo.

Best Picture Posted on January 17, 2007

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

• Babel (Paramount)
• The Departed (Warner Bros)
• Dreamgirls (DreamWorks)
• The Queen (Miramax)
• Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)

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• Letters from Iwo Jima (Dreamworks)

Well... the above says it all: no Dreamgirls, but Letters from Iwo Jima is in. Perhaps biggest surprise of the announcement.

This category seems to be almost set in stone... Babel, Departed, Dreamgirls are sure nominations. The other two spots however are theoretically up for grabs. The only problem is, it's hard to see any of the followers standing out.

And there were nine... Posted on January 17, 2007

... foreign film contenders. This year the Academy started using a different process for determining the five Foreign Language Film Nominees, using a 2 phase process. The Phase I committee, consisting of several hundred Los Angeles-based members, screened the 61 eligible films and their ballots determined the shortlist.

A Phase II committee, made up of ten randomly selected members from the Phase I group, joined by additional ten-member contingents in New York and Los Angeles, will view the shortlisted films and select the five 2006 nominees for the category.

I just found this out the other day and it comes as a bit of a surprise... On the other hand it could help making sure that even though the Nominees will be selected by only 30 people, at least they would have seen all the 9 "top" choices. And here are the ones that are left, in alphabetical order, by country:

Golden Globes 2006 Posted on January 15, 2007

OMG. The Oscar Nominations are almost due. The Golden Globes are on right now. And I haven't done anything for this year's predictions?

Anyway, here's quick notes from the Golden Globes.

First win, Supporting Actress going to Leonardo DiCaprio! No, wait. That was a joke. Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. Then Prince won something... heh. I guess they're trying to make the Superbowl half-time show seem more interesting?

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