2004 Nomination Predictions Archives

Best PICTURE Posted on 04:47 PM

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

  • The Aviator (Miramax)
  • Sideways (Fox Searchlight)
  • Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros)
  • Ray (Universal)
  • Finding Neverland (Miramax)

This was indeed the most predictable race, with no surprise whatsoever. The Aviator, recent winner of the PGA is also the most nominated movie with 11 nods.

The Best Picture race is apparently the most boring race, but don't let the appearances fool you. Ray and even Finding Neverland are not guaranteed noms. Finding Neverland runs the risk of being the second Miramax movie, but it will probably overcome that on the Johnny Depp/Chocolat factor. Ray is a great movie but it might lose out the BP nomination to any of Kinsey, Closer, Hotel Rwanda or even Eternal Sunshine.... I will stick with the "boring" 5 though.

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Best DIRECTOR Posted on 09:03 PM

My current frontrunners:

  • Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
  • Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
  • Alexander Payne (Sideways)
  • Mike Nichols (Closer)
  • Marc Forster (Finding Neverland)
  • Taylor Hackford (Ray)
  • Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

The risk of sneaking in a wild guess is that you are very likely to get 3/5 in what would normally be a 4/5 category: Hackford and Forster were the likely candidates, and Ray's support was stronger in the main categories. Mike Leigh is the big surprise of this year nominated for both director and screenplay.

In the Best Director category we again have a few people fighting for 2 slots: Marc Forster, Taylor Hackford, Alejandro Amenabar, Bill Condon, Zhang Yimou are all names mentioned with various degrees of likelyhood. And of course there's my wild choice Mike Nichols.

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Best ACTOR Posted on 12:00 AM

The current predictions:

  • Jamie Foxx (Ray)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)
  • Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
  • Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside)
  • Paul Giamatti (Sideways)
  • Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
  • Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

The same story as in my best director predictions: predicting Javier Bardem was wishful thinking, while Paul Giamatti's omission is perhaps the most surprising ommission of this nomination morning. Eastwood and Cheadle are not surprising inclusions, but more people would've guessed a list without Johnny Depp rather than without Giamatti.

After winning the Golden Globes Foxx and DiCaprio have no worries. Giamatti looks like he won't be ignored again, and Depp is a Hollywood favorite which gives him a good chance. But then there are Liam Neeson, Don Cheadle and Javier Bardem...

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Best ACTRESS Posted on 12:53 AM

And the predicted nominees are:

  • Annette Benning (Being Julia)
  • Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)
  • Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
  • Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
  • Catalina Sandina Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

Well, in retrospect, given that I have guessed all 5 nominees, this doesn't look like such a tough category to predict. Basically I stayed away from the Uma Thurman fans wishful thinking and that paid off.

The first three actresses seem to be certain nominations, while Kate Winslet has a strong chance. For the fifth spot, I do not believe Uma Thurman will make it and I am going for the safest next bet with Moreno. If I were to follow my whim here I would probably go with Julie Delpy or even Nicole Kidman for the 5th nomination.

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Best Supporting ACTOR Posted on 11:26 PM

The current prediction:

  • Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
  • Thomas H. Church (Sideways)
  • Clive Owen (Closer)
  • Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey)
  • Jamie Foxx (Collateral)
  • Alan Alda (The Aviator)

Although I did mention Alda's name as a possible spoiler, I didn't quite consider him seriously. Of course, in the end of the day he is likely to be an "also ran", but so far he took Sarsgaard's place or, more sadly, Carradine's. On the other hand Jamie Foxx manages to receive nominations in both acting categories. Impressive.

Everyone seems to have accepted Jamie Foxx's leading role in Collateral as supporting performance, perhaps a sign that this category is fairly weak this year. Morgan Freeman and Hayden Church have received the strongest critical support. Owen and Sarsgaard however may find their spots endangered by 12 year old Freddie Highmore, veterans David Carradine and James Garner, or exuberant Rodrigo De la Serna.

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Best Supporting ACTRESS Posted on 07:58 AM

Current predictions:

  • Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
  • Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
  • Laura Linney (Kinsey)
  • Cloris Leachman (Spanglish)
  • Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland)
  • Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
  • Natalie Portman (Closer)

Third time is not a charm, and my third attempt at outsmarting everyone with guessing a surprise nomination, backfired as well. No nomination for Leachman and out of the likely trio: Okonedo, Portman, Winslet, my choice was also the wrong one. Actually the one change that I was planning to make last night, was to include Portman instead of Winslet, but... I fell asleep instead :). Portman did receive her nomination despite the Actor's Guild snub, exposing the difference between the mass of actors represented in SAG and the "selected" ones that are part of the Academy.

At this point I may be crazy leaving out recent Golden Globe winner Natalie Portman. I am still torn wether Owen/Portman will make it in despite Closer being snubbed by SAG and other guilds, which is still very likely. The first three nominees seem sure bets now. Leachman is my personal favorite and wild-guess (when will I learn not to let myself influenced by personal feelings...) and she's fighting alongside Winslet, Portman and Okonedo for the other 2 spots.

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Best SCREENPLAY Posted on 12:09 PM

The predictions for both categories:

Original Screenplay

  • Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine...)
  • John Logan (The Aviator)
  • Bill Condon (Kinsey)
  • Zach Braff (Garden State)
  • James L. White (Ray)
  • Hotel Rwanda
  • Brad Bird (The Incredibles)
  • Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

Adapted Screenplay

  • Sideways
  • Million Dollar Baby
  • Motorcycle Diaries
  • Door in the Floor
  • Finding Neverland
  • Before Sunset

The Original Screenplay category proved to be the biggest spoiler for my predictions. Truth be told, Brad Bird's nomination for The Incredibles was quite expected, but I really didn't have much of a feel for this category so I prefered to stick with my very first predictions. Mike Leigh receive his surprise 2nd nomination of the evening for a total of 5 in his career.

The Adapted Screenplay section was much smoother. I am glad Motorcycle Diaries was recognized, while the reason I stayed away from Before Sunset was that it's pretty much a screenplay adapted after... itself, the original material being some story written by the same Linklater. However, a good set of nominees.

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