2005 Nominations Predictions Archives

Best Picture Posted on 06:29 PM

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

  • Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features)
  • Crash (Lions Gate)
  • Good Night and Good Luck (Warner Independent Pictures)
  • Walk the Line (20th Century Fox)
  • Munich (Dreamworks/Universal)
  • Capote

It turned out my favorite did not make it. I am sure it was pretty close, but given how the voting works, it is not entirely unexpected. Capote and Munich while perhaps on fewer ballots, probably had more #1 rankings than Walk the Line, since they are much more polarizing, political movies.

If I considered last year's Best Picture race the most boring of all the categories, this is certainly not the case now. Brokeback Mountain is the only movie guaranteed to be nominated. Walk the Line is one of my personal favorites and with the Golden Globes sweep, should have enough momentum to grab the nomination. Crash, the early release of 2005 that was not forgotten, seems to also have enough support and the right theme to receive the nod. Capote and Good Night and Good Luck have the right themes and apparent precursor support, but I would guess one of them may miss out in favor of Spielberg's Munich. Then there's The Constant Gardner which may sneak in at the last moment.

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Best Director Posted on 08:45 PM

My current frontrunners:

  • Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
  • George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck)
  • Steven Spielberg (Munich)
  • Woody Allen (Matchpoint)
  • Paul Haggis (Crash)
  • Bennet Miller (Capote)

I probably would have guessed Cronenberg before Miller, but I knew that Woody Allen was a semi-wild pick.

While Ang Lee is locked in and George Clooney would be terribly dissapointed if he won't hear his name listed on the directors shortlist, the rest of the spots are not as easy to predict. Spielberg, Woody Allen, Paul Haggis, Cronenberg, Bennet Miller are equally hopeful. If I chose to gamble here, I would do it with Terrence Malick.

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Best Actor Posted on 09:54 PM

The current predictions:

  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
  • Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
  • Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
  • David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)

Indeed no major surprise here. No surprise at all here in fact. Since I had no particular inclination for wishful thinking in this category, I ended up playing by the book and going with the most predictable lineup.

This category has probably the first 3 names locked in. Howard and Strathairn fight for the remaining slots with Russel Crowe or even Jeff Daniels (Squid and the Whale). I can't think of a major surprise in this category though.

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Best Actress Posted on 11:20 PM

And the predicted nominees are:

  • Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
  • Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
  • Charlize Theron (North Country)
  • Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)
  • Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World)
  • Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)

Keira Knightley is perhaps the biggest surprise of the nominations announcement. Some pundits wishfully mentioned her name as a possibility, but very few truly believed in her chance. Congrats to her, even though she will be an "also ran" after March 5th.

Reese, Charlize and Felicity seem locked in, Judi Dench also, although she plays her usual type of role, while Q'Orianka... that's my wild guess of the year. She would totally deserve the nom though

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Best Supporting Actor Posted on 06:33 PM

The current prediction:

  • George Clooney (Syriana)
  • Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
  • Matt Dillon (Crash)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Terrence Howard (Crash)
  • William Hurt (A History of Violence)

There was no surprise love in other categories for A History of Violence, but Hurt did make an impression with his very brief role. Overall another category with little surprise.

A category that is relatively open, with Clooney being the only seemingly sure bet. Dillon should make it in, unless Crash roles split their votes too much. Giamatti is overdue after being snubbed last year (and he won the SAG yesterday!!), Gyllenhaal is backed up by playing in the frontrunner best picture movie. I am leaning towards giving the last spot to Collins mainly by process of elimination, since I do not see William Hurt getting nominated, or another Crash member alongside Dillon (although that did happen at SAG and the Giamatti win may very well hint towards vote splitting)

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Best Supporting Actress Posted on 06:47 PM

The current predictions:

  • Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
  • Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
  • Catherine Keener (Capote)
  • Amy Adams (Junebug)
  • Scarlett Johansson (Matchpoint)
  • Frances McDormand (North Country)

Taking chances was not something that paid off this year. McDormand deserves her nomination more than Johansson would have, judging solely on this year's performance, therefore all is good after all. And yay! Amy Adams nominated!

I have a feeling I will keep changing my predictions until the last moment here. Adams and Keener are both among my favorites but their nominations are at odds with Scarlett Johansson, Maria Bello or Mc Dormand. After much pondering I will take a chance here and take McDormand out of my initial top 5 to make room for an overdue Johansson.

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Best Screenplay Posted on 07:43 PM

The predictions for both categories:

Original Screenplay

  • Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco (Crash)
  • George Clooney & Grant Heslov (Good Night and Good Luck)
  • Woody Allen (Matchpoint)
  • Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale)
  • Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)

Alternate: Cliff Hollingsworth & Akiva Goldsman (Cinderella Man)

Adapted Screenplay

  • Brokeback Mountain
  • Capote
  • The Constant Gardener
  • Munich
  • A History of Violence

Alternate: Walk The Line

Oh boy, you know these are the most boring nominations when I get 10/10 in the screenplay categories!!

The screenplay categories have been turned upside down by the rather bizarre decision that he Academy made, to almost silently switch Syriana from the adapted category to be original screenplay. The news of the change broke public only 3 days before the voting ballots were due in the mail, but the Academy has sent in December the lists which included Syriana in the original screenplay category... Are the voters earlier with mailing their ballots than the average person is with their taxes? Syriana might just miss out on a nomination entirely.

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