2006 Nominations Predictions Archives

Best Picture Posted on 11:21 PM

Current predictions for best picture nominations:

  • Babel (Paramount)
  • The Departed (Warner Bros)
  • Dreamgirls (DreamWorks)
  • The Queen (Miramax)
  • Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)
  • Letters from Iwo Jima (Dreamworks)

Well... the above says it all: no Dreamgirls, but Letters from Iwo Jima is in. Perhaps biggest surprise of the announcement.

This category seems to be almost set in stone... Babel, Departed, Dreamgirls are sure nominations. The other two spots however are theoretically up for grabs. The only problem is, it's hard to see any of the followers standing out.

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Best Director Posted on 09:20 PM

Current predictions:

  • Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
  • Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu (Babel)
  • Stephen Frears (The Queen)
  • Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
  • Paul Greengrass (United 93)

The only sure nominee is Scorsese. Innaritu is liked and his movie is strong; Frears did a good job but is mostly coat-tailing Helen Mirren so his position is uncertain. Everybody loves Clint and they might not be tired of him. Then there's Greengrass, Condon, Almodovar or the Miss Sunshine duo.

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Best Actor Posted on 05:29 PM

Current predictions:

  • Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
  • Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
  • Peter O'Toole (Venus)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) (The Departed)
  • Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking)
  • Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Eckhart was wishful thinking on my part and Gosling was a safe prediction that many made. But, the big story is DiCaprio getting the nod for Blood Diamond rather than Departed. That may indicate much less support for Departed than predicted.

Forest Whitaker's nomination is all but announced. Peter O'Toole is a safe bet although there might be some reluctance nominating him when he's not expected to win, after he got a lifetime achievement. Leo could cancel himself out with his two eligible roles; Will Smith seems safe; Ryan Gosling seems to be receiving critical buzz and be the main candidate for the last role but... he could be replaced by Eckhart or even Cohen.

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Best Actress Posted on 01:32 PM

Current predictions:

  • Helen Mirren (The Queen)
  • Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
  • Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
  • Penelope Cruz (Volver)
  • Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Mirren and Dench are sure shots and it looks like Meryl Streep cannot be shaken away from another nom either. Cruz should be getting a spot as well, but the race seems wide open for the 5th place. Kate Winslet seems to be everyone's favorite, however I am almost betting on Bening and you never know if the voters won't surprise us for real with nominating Deron or Gyllenhaal.

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Best Supporting Actor Posted on 06:13 PM

Current predictions:

  • Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
  • Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
  • Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
  • Djimon Honsou (Blood Diamond)
  • Brad Pitt (Babel)
  • Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

No real surprise here. Wahlberg pulls ahead of Nicholson from Departed(deservingly so) but also ahead of Pitt and the rest. Probably this was the closest call of all major categories

This is a race that is open pretty much all the way with about 10 people arguably in the run. Jack Nicholson can sneak ahead of Brad Pitt, but also Michael Sheen or James McAvoy could replace any of the listed five.

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Best Supporting Actress Posted on 07:55 PM

Current predictions:

  • Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
  • Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
  • Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
  • Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
  • Adriana Barraza (Babel)

This is one race where the top five are very likely to be set in stone. Not because they are miles ahead of their competition but... because there is almost no competition. This seems very strange for a supporting race.

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Best Screenplay Posted on 01:11 AM

Predictions for both categorties:

Original screenplay:

  • Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
  • Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
  • Zach Helm (Stranger than Fiction)
  • Peter Morgan (The Queen)
  • Guillermo del Torro (Pan's Labyrinth)
  • Iris Yamashita (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Possible: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

Adapted screenplay:

  • William Monahan (The Departed)
  • Jason Reitman (Thank You for Smoking)
  • Aline Brosh McKenna (The Devil Wears Prada)
  • Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
  • Todd Field & Tom Perrotta (Little Children)
  • Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)
  • Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)

Possible: Sacha Baron Cohen & co. (Borat), Jeremy Brock & Peter Morgan (The Last King of Scotland)

Biggest surprise is Yamashita's nomination for Letters from Iwo Jima. In the Adapted section, as predicted, the race was wide open: I still don't know what Borat is adapted from. Patrick Marber is a respected writer and Notes deserves the nomination. I am confused about Cuaron's nomination given that I didn't find the Children of Men script (or movie for that matter) much above a usual action-scifi flick except for direction and camerawork.

The Original screenplay seems to be a bit more clear-cut, with the last two spots contended by four movies: Pan, United93, Volver or Stranger than Fiction. I am tempted to fall for Pan's Labyrinth buzz but only for this category, while I see Stranger than Fiction being a classic choice. A last minute change in my prediction would be between the 9/11 script for United 93 and Pan.

The Adapted nominees, on the other hand, may come from a much larger pool. Notes on a Scandal, The Peinted Veil, Children of Men could also be among the nominees and this is only citing a few. Not sure what Borat's script is adapted from, but the WGA nomination is a bit worrying that it may actually turn into an Oscar nod.

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