But well that makes commenting on the awards ceremony (and later on, on the awards themselves) a whole easier - I won't risk contradicting any previous comment that I may have made on the movies :)

Amy Adams interprets one of the three nominated songs from Enchanted. Now... the song is one of the most memorable in the movie as a sleuth of birds, rats, roaches line up and start helping her clean up the house. I kept watching for about a minute into the song waiting for something to happen, but I had to admit it: there will be no mice or birds or any kind of dancers mimicking them at the ceremony. Quite bizarre. I guess they went for classic interpretations this year rather than actual show numbers.

A brief showcasing of previous Supporting Actor winners reminds us of truly great actors. I can't help but noticing the gap when previous year's Supporting Actress winner comes to present the nominees. Thankfully, the list of this year's nominees included some great actors and brilliant performances: Tom Wilkinson, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook. The winner though, was a foregone conclusion tonight: Javier Bardem is also a hallmark actor and his performance in No Country for Old Men left no doubt about the winner in a category where any of the other nominees could have easily won in another year.

Ratatouille. I can't remember when was the last time where the animated category had actually a race going on. Perhaps when Antz and Bug's Life came out in the same year? Persepolis was surely a better movie, but not what voters are looking for when it comes to the Animated category.

For many Tilda Swanton caused the first upset of the night taking home the Supporting Actress award. However, her speech totally made up for it. She can be funny and she did it all while being (or at least appearing) genuinely surprised.

Apparently The Bourne Ultimatum sounded great. Who knew. It got both awards for Sound Editing and for Sound Mixing.

Marion Cotillard was the most emotional winner so far and perhaps rightfully so as she made history being one of very few foreign actors to ever win an Oscar. Also, her win was perhaps the biggest surprise of the night, edging out Julie Christie.

A special moment was the performance of the song Falling Slowly from the little known movie Once. Once had the allure of a classic such as Love Story once was. More people would have to see it though to appreciate its simplicity and truthfulness.

Equally special was the acceptance of the honorary Oscar by 98 year old Richard Boyle. His eloquence is hard to match by many of the younger stars.

And we're back to Once. As the two stars of the movie and also composers Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova went on stage to accept the award, the loudest cheering of the whole evening erupted. The touching story not only from within the movie but also of the way the movie was made and filmed in only 17 days, with almost no budget, is one of those success stories that Hollywood loves to cheer for and this time they got the right story and the right people to cheer for.

Daniel Day Lewis's win was another foregone conclusion. I have to say though: as a great lover of stage (theater) performances, I find it very rare, especially in these days, to encounter a screen performance whose power and intensity transcends into the audience as if it was performed live, in front of the audience. Lewis's performance had that feeling to it and his win was never in question.

Finally, the Coen brothers collect the Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay awards for No Country for Old Men. The Coen brothers movies are always special: they are not the darlings of the general public and box office, but they generate cult followings and leave a strong impact, encouraging repeated viewings. No Country seems to be one of the instant Coen classics like Fargo or Big Lebowski. For most viewers however, it will remain only "that bizarre movie that won the Oscar".

The Departed was the winner of the night with 4 wins including Best Picture and Best Director. Pan's Labyrinth won 3 (missing out on Best Foreign Film though), Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and An Inconvenient Truth had each 2 wins.

What else was memorable?

Best Picture, on the other hand, went also to The Departed, a decision that falls into the typical Academy behaviour. We'll have to wait a little longer until an indepenent film will win the big prize. And it doesn't look like it can be both independent and a comedy... too much to swallow in one bite.

Not much else to comment on the awards themselves. I am happy with Alan Arkin's win - although if I am to be nitpicking I can chuck it under the category "If we are to give it to a comedy role, might as well be to the old guy". The only real surprise for me was Gustavo Santaolalla repeating his Brokeback Mountain win for the score of Babel in a year with many (more) memorable scores. Speaking of score, Ennio Moriconne received an honorary award for his brilliant film composing career. Well deserved (I even have CD's with his scores) but it would have been even better without the snore song by Celine Dion.

About the show itself, I have to say I was quite pleased with Ellen DeGeneres freshness. Her bits through the audience, giving a script to Marty and asking Spielberg to take a picture of her and Eastwood were priceless. The shape presentations of some of the year's movie, by a group whose name I have to find, were impressive.

All categories have some more detailed comments when the race warranted it. Enjoy and tune in for live comments during the broadcast and tally of the results.

Of course, as a pundit, I have a few more days to finalize the predictions, especially on the big categories, so look for updates and more detailed comments to sneak into each page up until Saturday.

Cinematography

• Black Dahlia
• Children of Men
• The Illusionist
• Pan's Labyrinth
• The Prestige

Editing

• Babel
• Blood Diamond
• Children of Men
• The Departed
• United 93

Art Direction

• Dreamgirls
• Good Shepherd
• Pan's Labyrinth
• Pirates of the Caribbean 2
• The Prestige

Costume Design

• Curse of Golden Flower
• Devil Wears Prada
• Dreamgirls
• Marie Antoinette
• The Queen

Makeup

• Apocalypto
• Click
• Pan's Labyrinth

Visual Effects

• Pirates of the Caribbean 2
• Poseidon
• Superman Returns

Original Score

• Babel (Gustavo Santaolalla)
• The Good German (Thomas Newman)
• Notes on Scandal (Phillip Glass)
• Pan's Labyrinth (Javier Navarrete)
• The Queen (Alexandre Desplat)

Relative surprise here. Very soon after the Brokeback Mountain win, Santaolalla gets a second. May this indicate strong support for Babel in Best Picture as well?

Sound Editing

• Apocalypto
• Blood Diamond
• Flags of Our Fathers
• Letters From Iwo Jima
• Pirates of the Caribbeans 2

A bit surprising. Can this award foreshadow some more surprising wins for Iwo Jima?

Sound Mixing

• Apocalypto
• Blood Diamond
• Dreamgirls
• Flags of our Fathers
• Pirates of the Caribbean 2

Original Song

• Cars (Our Town)
• An Inconvenient Truth (I Need to Wake Up)
• Dreamgirls (Listen)
• Dreamgirls (Patience)
• Dreamgirls (Love You, I Do)

Was this a political vote too? Either way it was not completely surprising, although I still think Listen was the best song of the group but also suffered from split Dreamgirls votes.

Looks like the battle will be between Children of Men, a movie whose appeal I did not get and Pan's Labyrinth who may be slightly over-hyped but I find it to be one of the best movies of the year. However, Emmanuel Lubezki is at his 4th nomination and is extremely well loved by the community. This should be enough to make his win a done deal.

Editing

The only one that's out of the question here is Blood Diamond. If there is a contingent of Children of Men admirers here, they will go for it, but some may also appreciate United 93's tension. The Departed and Babel share the more classic votes. One of the most open races. Last year's win Crash would match this year's Babel. Two years ago Thelma Shoonmaker won for Aviator which would point towards another win for her in Departed. In 2001, the award went to a non-frontrunner, Black Hawk Down.

Art Direction

This is another category that can be very wide open. However, it's likely that the battle will be between the default choice Dreamgirls and the deserving Pan. John Myhre however, won recently for Chicago and even Memoirs of a Geisha, therefore I hope he won't get a third win for Dreamgirls. The Prestige and Pirates of the Caribbean are possible spoilers, but with small chances.

Costume Design

While Prada and Queen have a legitimate chance, the battle is likely to be between the obvious choice Dreamgirls and the... other obvious choice Marie Antoinette. I give the edge to the veteran Milena Canonero who earns her 8th nomination (2 wins) despite the movie's limited popularity.

Makeup

Click?... Click?!??.

Visual Effects

There should be no contest here.

Original Score

This is a tricky category. Desplat is nominated for the weaker score this year (The Painted Veil was what everyone was expected to see here) but for a movie that has strong support. Newman is at his 8th nomination and looking for the first win while Navarrete comes out of the blue with a memorable score. Santaolalla who won last year is not likely to repeat and Phillip Glass's music while powerful and moving still does not fully echo with the voters. I'll go with Pan's Labyrinth with The Queen as a potential spoiler.

Sound Editing

Not much to say here. Pirates should have no competition and is the right type of movie for this category.

Sound Mixing

The guy nominated for Apocalypto is at his 19th nomination with no win so far. Yet this category is likely to fair well with the elephant in the room: Dreamgirls.

Original Song

Is it the first time we have a song from a documentary nominated? How about three songs from the same movie? Regardless of the chance that Dreamgirls may split votes among the three songs, Listen should still emerge victorious as most voters will feel they give it to Beyonce.

Indigenes (Algeria)	Water (Canada)	After the Wedding (Denmark)	The Lives of Others (Germany)	Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)

Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth/Lives of Others Could Win: Pan's Labyrinth Will Win: The Lives of Others

Indeed, for those that saw both movies, Lives of Others took the edge over Pan's Labyrinth

Documentary

Deliver Us from Evil	An Inconvenient Truth	Iraq in Fragments	Jesus Camp	My Country, My Country

Should Win: (not seen enough) Could Win: Deliver Us from Evil Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth

Animated Feature

Cars(Pixar/Disney)	Happy Feet (Warner Bros)	Monster House (Sony Pictures)

Should Win: Monster House Could Win: Happy Feet Will Win: Cars

A small surprise. It's good that Pixar didn't win for a movie that's not really that great, but Monster House would have been the more edgy choice.

Documentary Short

• The Blood of Yingzhou District
• Recycled Life
• Rehearsing a Dream
• Two Hands

Live Action Short

• Binta Y La Gran Idea (Binta and the Great Idea)
• Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)
• Helmer & Son
• The Saviour
• West Bank Story

One of the best acceptance speeches in a long time. Brief, to the point and full of message (peace in the West Bank between Palestinians and Israeli) without being preachy.

Animated Short

• The Danish Poet
• Lifted
• Little Match Girl
• Maestro
• No Time For Nuts

One of the more interesting races, between two movies that many consider to be the best two of the year! What makes it even more complicated to predict a winner is that we only have 40 people voting in this category, making it harder to count on hype or me-too votes. The one thing that these voters may take into account however is Mexico's lack of wins thus far. Nevertheless, The Lives of Others might earn the win by the narrowest of margins.

Documentary

Al Gore will win. Not the elections, but an Oscar for his global-warming awareness movie.

Animated

There is actually some doubt in this category for the first time in many many years. Cars was not that great, but it's Pixar and it will still edge out the dancing penguins.

Shorts

I hear all the shorts are available for download on itunes. I might check them out, but until then... wild guesses.

• Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
• Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis (Letters from Iwo Jima)
• Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Guillermo del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)
• Peter Morgan (The Queen)

I dare say that if Pan's Labyrinth doesn't win, whoever the winner here is, will also win Best Picture. Little Miss Sunshine! Well... I hope I'm right.

Adapted Screenplay

• Borat
• Children of Men
• The Departed
• Little Children
• Notes on a Scandal

Should Win: Cate Blanchett Could Win: Abigail Breslin Will Win: Jennifer Hudson

A true Hollywood story for Hudson for sure. But... will she ever act in a role without singing?

Oh and, in case my should win section didn't catch your eye, Cate Blanchett gave the performance of the year opposite Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal. But, in a group that has at least 3 Oscar-bait roles, is hard to think she can actually prevail.

So yah... Hudson is probably set in stone.

Should Win: Alan Arkin Could Win: Alan Arkin Will Win: Eddie Murphy

I wish I had gone with my favorite here ;) but regardless it is too soon to tell if the win indicates more support for Little Miss Sunshine or it was just a recognition for the 73 years old Arkin.

Murphy won the SAG and that solidifies him as front-runner. Arkin is part of the most beloved ensemble cast of the year, is old and has a stand-out performance. The Departed fans loved Wahlberg, but for him this will probably stay as his first nomination. Hounsou gets another nod, but the african-american vote will focus on Murphy. Haley is the critics darling, but the Academy voters will be happy this time to have less controversial roles to choose from. So, in the end, we have the battle between Murphy and Arkin. If Arkin wins, then LMS wins best picture as well. He probably won't win though.

Should Win: Helen Mirren Could Win: Helen Mirren Will Win: Helen Mirren

Should Win: Forest Whitaker Could Win: Peter O'Toole Will Win: Forest Whitaker

A just choice, despite for sure every voter felt sorry for not writing O'Toole's name down.

Should Win: Clint Eastwood Could Win: Clint Eastwood/Paul Greengrass Will Win: Martin Scorsese

Standing ovation. "Could you double-check the envelope?".

Should Win: Little Miss Sunshine Could Win: The Departed / Babel Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine

Oh well... small movies have to wait another year... Too bad.

Letters from Iwo Jima is the kind of movie that Academy usually loves. A war epic. Produced by none other than beloved Clint Eastwood and Steven Spielberg. There's only one problem: it is about the enemy. So much so, that it's actually spoken entirely in Japanese. Golden Globes honored it with the Best Foreign Language award. It made the shortlist, but this is where the glory stops.

The Queen is a one woman show. It may acquire strong support from the British side of the Academy, but in the end it was labeled too much as Helen Mirren's movie that it will stay that way.

Babel would be a very likely candidate for the win if it wasn't for... Crash. Last year's winner covered pretty much the same themes. And while some may appreciate the larger scale that Babel tries to encompass, others may find it less focused and poignant than its predecessor. No matter how you look at it, even if you see it as better than Crash, it's unlikely that it will get more votes aside from those who truly have it as their personal favorite or those that cannot see value in other types of movies. There will be plenty votes for Babel, but I don't think there will be enough.

And we're left with the 2 main contenders:

The Departed. Scorsese is back, yet again, this time with a movie that many found to be much closer to what he does best: mob stories. I personally would have been much more impressed about the movie if it wasn't an adaptation of a Hong Kong hit and one that I found actually weaker in the story than the original. Regardless, if this is finally Scorsese's year, then it could also be the year of The Departed. However...

Little Miss Sunshine is the little movie that could. Is the success story that any producer dreams about. So appreciated that the DGA made an exception to nominate its pair of first time directors. The SAG decided that the ensemble cast trumps DiCaprio, Nicholson and Damon. And what the awards and nominations show this time is not the strong arm of the promoting studio or the reputation of the director or even of the lead star. It is about a movie that manages to be so quirky yet lovable that you can't say no. Small movies have made their way into the Best Picture nominees list over the past few years: Lost in Translation, Sideways being the more remarkable. But Little Miss Sunshine has perhaps the strongest chance to break the pattern and produce a win. Even though only twice in Oscars history was there a Best Picture winner without a Director's nomination. Even though it's been 30 years since a comedy won Best Picture.

Anyway, the deed is done and we know the 2006 Oscar Nominees. I updated my predictions, as always, marking the correct guesses, the ones I got almost right (being secondary guesses) or the true surprises. There are three main surprises: Dreamgirls misses out on Best Picture nomination in favor of Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima. Leonardo DiCaprio gets his nomination but for Blood Diamond instead of Departed. And Almodovar's Volver doesn't make the top 5 in Foreign Film.

The tally stands as follows: 8 nominations for Dreamgirls (but 3 of them are for Best Song!!), 7 nods for Babel, 6 for Pan's Labyrinth (!!) and The Queen, 5 for Blood Diamond and The Departed, 4 for Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Notes on a Scandal and Pirates of the Caribbean.

Original screenplay:

• Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
• Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
• Zach Helm (Stranger than Fiction)
• Peter Morgan (The Queen)
• Guillermo del Torro (Pan's Labyrinth)

  ---

• Iris Yamashita (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Possible: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

Adapted screenplay:

• William Monahan (The Departed)
• Jason Reitman (Thank You for Smoking)
• Aline Brosh McKenna (The Devil Wears Prada)
• Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
• Todd Field & Tom Perrotta (Little Children)

  ---

• Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)
• Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)

Possible: Sacha Baron Cohen & co. (Borat), Jeremy Brock & Peter Morgan (The Last King of Scotland)

Biggest surprise is Yamashita's nomination for Letters from Iwo Jima. In the Adapted section, as predicted, the race was wide open: I still don't know what Borat is adapted from. Patrick Marber is a respected writer and Notes deserves the nomination. I am confused about Cuaron's nomination given that I didn't find the Children of Men script (or movie for that matter) much above a usual action-scifi flick except for direction and camerawork.

The Original screenplay seems to be a bit more clear-cut, with the last two spots contended by four movies: Pan, United93, Volver or Stranger than Fiction. I am tempted to fall for Pan's Labyrinth buzz but only for this category, while I see Stranger than Fiction being a classic choice. A last minute change in my prediction would be between the 9/11 script for United 93 and Pan.

The Adapted nominees, on the other hand, may come from a much larger pool. Notes on a Scandal, The Peinted Veil, Children of Men could also be among the nominees and this is only citing a few. Not sure what Borat's script is adapted from, but the WGA nomination is a bit worrying that it may actually turn into an Oscar nod.